Discussion:
Dick Smith Joins The Endless List Of Global Warming Hypocrites
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@B_O`N#Z*O
2010-11-15 00:35:58 UTC
Permalink
Dick Smith Joins The Endless List Of Global Warming Hypocrites

My research shows that all the world's hypocrites, for some strange reason,
are irresisistably drawn to the warmie whacko camp!

Maybe being a lying leftist whacko automatically qualifies one for the list.

November 15 2010



Yet more evidence that global warming is the first faith to be led
exclusively by hypocrites:



"After criss-crossing the world in his personal helicopter, Dick Smith tells
The Sydney Morning Herald's Good Weekend magazine he's finally nailed who is
responsible for global warming: "



"AFTER my research, it is most likely that humans are affecting climate."



So is Smith willing to share some of that responsibility?



As the Herald's writer Greg Bearup notes:



"HE has a holiday house, a farm with a homestead, a large house with a
swimming pool, two cars, a steam train and all that owning three separate
households entail. He's very open, but for some reason refuses to confirm
just how many aircraft he owns; there are at least two helicopters and a
jet."



http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/dick_smith_gases_on/





Warmest Regards



B0nz0



"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville



"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."

Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics



"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated



Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher



"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."

Bertrand Russell
DonH
2010-11-15 18:26:05 UTC
Permalink
Post by @B_O`N#Z*O
Dick Smith Joins The Endless List Of Global Warming Hypocrites
My research shows that all the world's hypocrites, for some strange
reason, are irresisistably drawn to the warmie whacko camp!
Maybe being a lying leftist whacko automatically qualifies one for the list.
November 15 2010
Yet more evidence that global warming is the first faith to be led
"After criss-crossing the world in his personal helicopter, Dick Smith
tells The Sydney Morning Herald's Good Weekend magazine he's finally
nailed who is responsible for global warming: "
"AFTER my research, it is most likely that humans are affecting climate."
So is Smith willing to share some of that responsibility?
"HE has a holiday house, a farm with a homestead, a large house with a
swimming pool, two cars, a steam train and all that owning three separate
households entail. He's very open, but for some reason refuses to confirm
just how many aircraft he owns; there are at least two helicopters and a
jet."
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/dick_smith_gases_on/
Warmest Regards
B0nz0
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of
scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that
is distinct from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."
Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics
"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another
try at condemning fossil fuels!"
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated
Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real
problems that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent
cost of a couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women
the daily journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher
"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever
that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the
majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than
sensible."
Bertrand Russell
# The same claim has been made of Al Gore, and can be made of anyone who
becomes aware of the possibility that we humans are a cause, not mere
victim.
With 6.5 billion humans infesting finite planet Earth, we must be making
some kind of impact, especially as most people aspire to a Western
life-style, rather than hand-to-mouth existence - let alone a Dick Smith
extravaganza.
To Dick Smith, quality of life is as important, or more so, than
quantity, and he also hopes to have capitalism without its constant emphasis
on "growth".
DS even has his own population website. See -
http://www.dicksmithpopulation.com.au
The point is - If the human species wishes to survive more than the next
few decades it must change its ways, numbers, and beliefs.
Human population is expected to increase to nine billion by year 2050
AD - if a "crash" does not occur before then.
Besides limiting population, we must recycle everything. Any human
product not recycled accumulates as "waste", and we'll "drown" in our own
garbage: air-sea-land pollution.
We could "have our cake and eat it" if we recycle.
Australia is currently "living off the minerals' back" (used to be
sheep's), but the faster we extract, the sooner we are left with only a hole
in the ground. Frugality (economy) seems indicated - unless all is
recycled.
The reverence people gave to "God" should be transferred to "Nature",
or at least the recognition that we depend on Nature, but it does not depend
on us.
The vast majority of biological species which have ever existed are
extinct. There is nothing so unique about the species Homo Sapiens that it
won't, sooner or later, join the vast majority. On present trends, it is
likely to be sooner.
Global warming is a direct result of air pollution, and, just as we no
longer allow raw sewage to be discharged into the oceans, we should prohibit
raw chimney smoke shitting into the atmosphere.
Skeptics and Deniers may live on in their Fool's Paradise where there
is No Problem, and it is Business as Usual - but Nature, as warped by us, is
not mocked, and its vast machinery will eliminate us with the same
indifference we showed the Dodo or Tasmanian Tiger.
As a Prophet of Doom, I predict the decimation of Homo Sap by 2050 AD
(nuclear WWIII in Middle East?), and extinction by 2099.
The Apeman is a defective species - it has an over-developed brain,
coupled with primitive instincts; a lethal combination. It will fail
Nature's Test: adaptation.
Time may prove me wrong - but don't bet on it.
Surfer
2010-11-16 18:23:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by DonH
The reverence people gave to "God" should be transferred to "Nature",
or at least the recognition that we depend on Nature, but it does not depend
on us.
The vast majority of biological species which have ever existed are
extinct. There is nothing so unique about the species Homo Sapiens that it
won't, sooner or later, join the vast majority. On present trends, it is
likely to be sooner.
Global warming is a direct result of air pollution, and, just as we no
longer allow raw sewage to be discharged into the oceans, we should prohibit
raw chimney smoke shitting into the atmosphere.
Excellent points...
l***@gmail.com
2010-11-19 21:11:56 UTC
Permalink
     The reverence people gave to "God" should be transferred to "Nature",
or at least the recognition that we depend on Nature, but it does not depend
on us.
     The vast majority of biological species which have ever existed are
extinct.  There is nothing so unique about the species Homo Sapiens that it
won't, sooner or later, join the vast majority.  On present trends, it is
likely to be sooner.
   Global warming is a direct result of air pollution, and, just as we no
longer allow raw sewage to be discharged into the oceans, we should prohibit
raw chimney smoke shitting into the atmosphere.
* Don Humphries is a wee bit confused ...
bo nz o
2010-11-17 01:16:46 UTC
Permalink
Post by DonH
Post by @B_O`N#Z*O
Dick Smith Joins The Endless List Of Global Warming Hypocrites
My research shows that all the world's hypocrites, for some strange
reason, are irresisistably drawn to the warmie whacko camp!
Maybe being a lying leftist whacko automatically qualifies one for the list.
November 15 2010
Yet more evidence that global warming is the first faith to be led
"After criss-crossing the world in his personal helicopter, Dick Smith
tells The Sydney Morning Herald's Good Weekend magazine he's finally
nailed who is responsible for global warming: "
"AFTER my research, it is most likely that humans are affecting climate."
So is Smith willing to share some of that responsibility?
"HE has a holiday house, a farm with a homestead, a large house with a
swimming pool, two cars, a steam train and all that owning three separate
households entail. He's very open, but for some reason refuses to confirm
just how many aircraft he owns; there are at least two helicopters and a
jet."
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/dick_smith_gases_on/
Warmest Regards
B0nz0
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of
perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of
scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that
is distinct from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers
your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis
is wrong. Period."
Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics
"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another
try at condemning fossil fuels!"
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated
Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real
problems that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent
cost of a couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women
the daily journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher
"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever
that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the
majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish
than sensible."
Bertrand Russell
# The same claim has been made of Al Gore, and can be made of anyone who
becomes aware of the possibility that we humans are a cause, not mere
victim.
With 6.5 billion humans infesting finite planet Earth, we must be making
some kind of impact, especially as most people aspire to a Western
life-style, rather than hand-to-mouth existence - let alone a Dick Smith
extravaganza.
To Dick Smith, quality of life is as important, or more so, than
quantity, and he also hopes to have capitalism without its constant
emphasis on "growth".
DS even has his own population website. See -
http://www.dicksmithpopulation.com.au
The point is - If the human species wishes to survive more than the
next few decades it must change its ways, numbers, and beliefs.
Human population is expected to increase to nine billion by year 2050
AD - if a "crash" does not occur before then.
Besides limiting population, we must recycle everything. Any human
product not recycled accumulates as "waste", and we'll "drown" in our own
garbage: air-sea-land pollution.
We could "have our cake and eat it" if we recycle.
Australia is currently "living off the minerals' back" (used to be
sheep's), but the faster we extract, the sooner we are left with only a
hole in the ground. Frugality (economy) seems indicated - unless all is
recycled.
The reverence people gave to "God" should be transferred to "Nature",
or at least the recognition that we depend on Nature, but it does not
depend on us.
The vast majority of biological species which have ever existed are
extinct. There is nothing so unique about the species Homo Sapiens that
it won't, sooner or later, join the vast majority. On present trends, it
is likely to be sooner.
Global warming is a direct result of air pollution,
PROVE IT!
The only "proof" lies in pre-ordained climate models.
The professor summed it up nicely ...
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
Post by DonH
and, just as we no longer allow raw sewage to be discharged into the
oceans, we should prohibit raw chimney smoke shitting into the atmosphere.
AGREED.
Real pollution should be prevented from entering the atmosphere, but CO2 is
not pollution!



Warmest Regards

B0nz0

"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville

"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."
Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics

"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated

Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher

"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."
Bertrand Russell
Peter Webb
2010-11-17 01:44:51 UTC
Permalink
Post by bo nz o
Post by DonH
and, just as we no longer allow raw sewage to be discharged into the
oceans, we should prohibit raw chimney smoke shitting into the atmosphere.
AGREED.
Real pollution should be prevented from entering the atmosphere, but CO2
is not pollution!
Interestingly, AGW believers sometimes blame the cooling in the 1970s on the
increase in particulate matter in the atmosphere resulting from incomplete
combustion. This is considered to offset some of the CO2. We may be better
off *not* cleaning this stuff up anymore, at least for coal fired stations
well away from population centres.
Surfer
2010-11-17 16:09:14 UTC
Permalink
Post by bo nz o
Post by DonH
Global warming is a direct result of air pollution,
PROVE IT!
Basic physics predicts that CO2 in the atmosphere obstructs radiation
of certain wavelengths of infrared heat from the earths surface.

It then logically follows that increasing the concentration of CO2
will increase this effect. That provides a logical proof.

Of course we need to know the size of the effect and how climate will
change as a result.

Long term predictions are difficult, but the following graphs show
current trends.

- Global mean troposphere temperature has an upward trend line
Loading Image...

- Arctic sea ice extent has a downward trend line
Loading Image...

- Antarctic mass has a downward trend line
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/20100108_Is_Antarctica_Melting.html

- Global sea level is rising
Loading Image...
Loading Image...



Note that an increase in solar radiation would cause warming of both
the lower and upper atmosphere.

However recent data shows that the upper atmosphere is cooling.
http://www.universetoday.com/47851/earths-upper-atmosphere-is-cooling


So the above changes are not due to increased solar radiation.
Claudius Denk
2010-11-17 19:33:15 UTC
Permalink
Post by Surfer
Post by bo nz o
   Global warming is a direct result of air pollution,
PROVE IT!
Basic physics predicts that CO2 in the atmosphere obstructs radiation
of certain wavelengths of infrared heat from the earths surface.
Actually basic physics shows that CO2 will not have much of any
radiative effect at all. And if it has any effect on the temperature
of the atmosphere it is due to a miniscule amount of additional
cooling in the upper atmosphere.
Post by Surfer
It then logically follows that increasing the concentration of CO2
will increase this effect. That provides a logical proof.
Of course we need to know the size of the effect and how climate will
change as a result.  
Long term predictions are difficult, but the following graphs show
current trends.
- Global mean troposphere temperature has an upward trend
lineLoading Image...
You must have a really good imagination to see anything significant in
this graph. I don't see it, but then maybe my imaginative abilities
are not as well developed as are yours.
Post by Surfer
 - Arctic sea ice extent has a downward trend linehttp://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/n_plot_hires.png
 - Antarctic mass has a downward trend linehttp://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/20100108_Is_Antarctica_Melt...
 - Global sea level is risingLoading Image...
Note that an increase in solar radiation would cause warming of both
the lower and upper atmosphere.
However recent data shows that the upper atmosphere is cooling.http://www.universetoday.com/47851/earths-upper-atmosphere-is-cooling
So the above changes are not due to increased solar radiation.
k***@kymhorsell.com
2010-11-17 20:35:42 UTC
Permalink
In sci.skeptic Claudius Denk <***@sbcglobal.net> wrote:
[...]
Post by Claudius Denk
Post by Surfer
- Global mean troposphere temperature has an upward trend
linehttp://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/0710_graf.jpg?w=5...
You must have a really good imagination to see anything significant in
this graph. I don't see it, but then maybe my imaginative abilities
are not as well developed as are yours.
[...]

Mostly blue on the left, mostly red on the right?

But, sure, judging things by eye is for people without numerical skills.

So let's do some time series analysis.

Here's the LOTI data for 1880-2010. For each month since Jun 1880 the
land+sea average global temperature is compared with the average temps
for the baseline period 1951-1980.

If you plot this out (judging things by eye again?) you can see ups
and downs as in the .jpg above -- and as in most of this type of data.

But a dispassionate time-series adjusted regression can spot a trend
if there is one.

We'll set the regression to throw out any points that are too far
(2 sigma) in either direction from the estimated line.

We'll adjust the confidence interval calculations to take into
account any auto-correlation (i.e. tendency for temps to stay high
year-on-year or stay low year-on-year).

We'll perform 2 methods to detect a trend. (a) TS estimate of slope
of trend line; (b) much more robust non-parametric test involving
comparing how often temp shows persistent increase year-on-year or
persistent decrease year-on-year.

Here's the data for any that want to check (the Puppeteer points his
eyes at each other at this point).

<http://data.giss.nasa.gov/work/modelEt/time_series/work/tmp.4_observLOTI_12_1880_2020_1951_1980-0/LTglb.txt>
#annual global mean anomalies vs 1951-1980
#year (12 month running mean)
#year Global_Mean
LOTI 1880.500000 -0.2870392203
LOTI 1880.583374 -0.2645724416
LOTI 1880.666626 -0.2594057918
LOTI 1880.750000 -0.2419331670
LOTI 1880.833374 -0.2229541987
LOTI 1880.916626 -0.2074880898
LOTI 1881.000000 -0.2043048292
LOTI 1881.083374 -0.1964165121
LOTI 1881.166626 -0.1936120242
LOTI 1881.250000 -0.1932898313
LOTI 1881.333374 -0.1950195283
LOTI 1881.416626 -0.2056796253
LOTI 1881.500000 -0.2045075744
LOTI 1881.583374 -0.2042157501
LOTI 1881.666626 -0.1837380528
LOTI 1881.750000 -0.1888128072
LOTI 1881.833374 -0.2099880725
LOTI 1881.916626 -0.2213578075
LOTI 1882.000000 -0.2220467031
LOTI 1882.083374 -0.2356183976
LOTI 1882.166626 -0.2390995473
LOTI 1882.250000 -0.2357863933
LOTI 1882.333374 -0.2439881116
LOTI 1882.416626 -0.2459754199
LOTI 1882.500000 -0.2695665359
LOTI 1882.583374 -0.2920927703
LOTI 1882.666626 -0.3194094896
LOTI 1882.750000 -0.3170636892
LOTI 1882.833374 -0.3069239855
LOTI 1882.916626 -0.3056268096
LOTI 1883.000000 -0.2877355516
LOTI 1883.083374 -0.2703407705
LOTI 1883.166626 -0.2773847878
LOTI 1883.250000 -0.2839022875
LOTI 1883.333374 -0.2806184590
LOTI 1883.416626 -0.2750584781
LOTI 1883.500000 -0.2534487844
LOTI 1883.583374 -0.2424502820
LOTI 1883.666626 -0.2275167108
LOTI 1883.750000 -0.2503300905
LOTI 1883.833374 -0.2686351538
LOTI 1883.916626 -0.2824572623
LOTI 1884.000000 -0.3008826971
LOTI 1884.083374 -0.3164333701
LOTI 1884.166626 -0.3137388825
LOTI 1884.250000 -0.3140973747
LOTI 1884.333374 -0.3127537072
LOTI 1884.416626 -0.3158432543
LOTI 1884.500000 -0.3215940297
LOTI 1884.583374 -0.3465836644
LOTI 1884.666626 -0.3558251858
LOTI 1884.750000 -0.3431555927
LOTI 1884.833374 -0.3428834081
LOTI 1884.916626 -0.3390768468
LOTI 1885.000000 -0.3462871611
LOTI 1885.083374 -0.3464398980
LOTI 1885.166626 -0.3501314819
LOTI 1885.250000 -0.3442657590
LOTI 1885.333374 -0.3411328495
LOTI 1885.416626 -0.3341733217
LOTI 1885.500000 -0.3137557805
LOTI 1885.583374 -0.3004218340
LOTI 1885.666626 -0.3119675815
LOTI 1885.750000 -0.3225693107
LOTI 1885.833374 -0.3075792193
LOTI 1885.916626 -0.2961017787
LOTI 1886.000000 -0.2881151736
LOTI 1886.083374 -0.2701530755
LOTI 1886.166626 -0.2660839558
LOTI 1886.250000 -0.2623470724
LOTI 1886.333374 -0.2681814730
LOTI 1886.416626 -0.2732165754
LOTI 1886.500000 -0.2914069891
LOTI 1886.583374 -0.3107959032
LOTI 1886.666626 -0.3193999827
LOTI 1886.750000 -0.3235819042
LOTI 1886.833374 -0.3423824310
LOTI 1886.916626 -0.3495471179
LOTI 1887.000000 -0.3391516805
LOTI 1887.083374 -0.3417507410
LOTI 1887.166626 -0.3477037251
LOTI 1887.250000 -0.3505294025
LOTI 1887.333374 -0.3551076949
LOTI 1887.416626 -0.3578089476
LOTI 1887.500000 -0.3665013015
LOTI 1887.583374 -0.3451480567
LOTI 1887.666626 -0.3399815559
LOTI 1887.750000 -0.3464401662
LOTI 1887.833374 -0.3381546736
LOTI 1887.916626 -0.3359285295
LOTI 1888.000000 -0.3369951248
LOTI 1888.083374 -0.3422552049
LOTI 1888.166626 -0.3357232809
LOTI 1888.250000 -0.3307074904
LOTI 1888.333374 -0.3052336872
LOTI 1888.416626 -0.2776562572
LOTI 1888.500000 -0.2609550357
LOTI 1888.583374 -0.2456672639
LOTI 1888.666626 -0.1956738234
LOTI 1888.750000 -0.1590766311
LOTI 1888.833374 -0.1303786635
LOTI 1888.916626 -0.1110890582
LOTI 1889.000000 -0.1015466750
LOTI 1889.083374 -0.1013996750
LOTI 1889.166626 -0.1042585969
LOTI 1889.250000 -0.1044155136
LOTI 1889.333374 -0.1202525869
LOTI 1889.416626 -0.1492130458
LOTI 1889.500000 -0.1587348580
LOTI 1889.583374 -0.1814049482
LOTI 1889.666626 -0.2266232371
LOTI 1889.750000 -0.2541835904
LOTI 1889.833374 -0.2839559913
LOTI 1889.916626 -0.3215562403
LOTI 1890.000000 -0.3429694474
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LOTI 2008.666626 0.4813087285
LOTI 2008.750000 0.4664338827
LOTI 2008.833374 0.4708602726
LOTI 2008.916626 0.4818562567
LOTI 2009.000000 0.5064594746
LOTI 2009.083374 0.5149075985
LOTI 2009.166626 0.5303887129
LOTI 2009.250000 0.5411190987
LOTI 2009.333374 0.5453741550
LOTI 2009.416626 0.5540969372
LOTI 2009.500000 0.5646377802
LOTI 2009.583374 0.5782875419
LOTI 2009.666626 0.6019529700
LOTI 2009.750000 0.6334959865
LOTI 2009.833374 0.6555088162
LOTI 2009.916626 0.6643188596
LOTI 2010.000000 0.6608605385
LOTI 2010.083374 0.6494707465
LOTI 2010.166626 0.6494237781
LOTI 2010.250000 0.6420695782

Here's the output from the regression:

avx 1943.502319
sdx 36.897190 (= 1.898490% of avx)
rangex 1880.500000..2009.666626 (= 6.646075% of avx)
avy -0.030250
sdy 0.232463 (= -768.462007% of avy)
rangey -0.425408..0.601953 (= -3396.186527% of avy)
533 (35.6%) points > 1 \sigma
40 (2.7%) points > 2 \sigma
y = 0.00544583*x + -10.6142
sdx 1426.41
rss 20.331
se 0.116577
r 0.864378
limits for beta at 90.0% CI
tc = 1.64586 at 1496 d.f.
beta in 0.00544583 +- 0.000134513 = [0.00531132, 0.00558034]
T-tests on beta:
H0 beta == 0.000000 against H1 beta != 0.000000
calculated t = 66.6337 at 1496 d.f.
|t| > tc (1.64586 2-sided); reject H0
H0 beta == 0.000000 against H1 beta > 0.000000
t > tc (1.28212 right tail); reject H0
Probabilities:
P(beta!=0.000000) = 1.000000
P(beta>0.000000) = 1.000000
limits for alpha at 90.0% CI
tc = 1.64586 at 1496 d.f.
alpha in -10.6142 +- 0.261473 = [-10.8757, -10.3528]
r2 = 0.745411
calculated Spearman corr = 0.870068
Testing:
H0: vars are independent
|r| > rc (0.432000 2-sided) at 1%; reject H0
Durbin-Watson d = 0.017697
d < dL (1.441109): Positive auto-corr at 5%

Here an explanation what that means:

In method (a) the model found is anomaly = a + b*year where b is
0.00544583. I.e. for each 100 years there appears to be .5 C
increase in anomalous temperature above baseline.
The T value for this estimate is 66 at 1400 degrees of freedom.
This boils down to saying there is almost no chance (approx 1 in 1000)
this increasing trend is due to chance alone.

Further, the r2 value indicates that 100-74.5% = 26% of the year-to-year
deviations in temperature anomaly are NOT explained by passage of time.
There are effects other than a simple increase over time, but together
they account for only 1/4 of what appears to be a persistent increase
over time. (Some of these other effects are (a) sunspots or
other variation in solar output; (b) volcanic eruptions that normally
produce approx 5-year periods of slight global cooling).

For method (b) (Spearman correlation) the probability the ordering
of the temperature anomalies is so similar (i.e. min temp anomaly tend
to be at start; max temp anaomaly tend to be at end of period)
is around 1 chance in 100. At 99% confidence we can say there is
an upward trend in anomalous temperature readings.

Having the 2 methods determine the same pattern increases the probability
the data shows a real trend, not just a chance effect that may "go away"
with more data over coming years.

Now, given we have estiblished there is an increasing trend, we could
ask -- does the trend stay the same over time?

Let's take just the data for the past 20 years and see whether there is
still a statistically significant trend. (None of this "by eye" stuff).

avx 2000.201172
sdx 5.854342 (= 0.292688% of avx)
rangex 1990.000000..2010.250000 (= 1.012398% of avx)
avy 0.412967
sdy 0.146199 (= 35.402116% of avy)
rangey 0.091196..0.664319 (= 138.781585% of avy)
89 (37.2%) points > 1 \sigma
2 (0.8%) points > 2 \sigma
y = 0.0196376*x + -38.8661
sdx 91.189
rss 1.99751
se 0.0918059
r 0.786359
limits for beta at 90.0% CI
tc = 1.65132 at 237 d.f.
beta in 0.0196376 +- 0.00166249 = [0.0179751, 0.0213001]
T-tests on beta:
H0 beta == 0.000000 against H1 beta != 0.000000
calculated t = 19.5056 at 237 d.f.
|t| > tc (1.65132 2-sided); reject H0
H0 beta == 0.000000 against H1 beta > 0.000000
t > tc (1.28514 right tail); reject H0
Probabilities:
P(beta!=0.000000) = 1.000000
P(beta>0.000000) = 1.000000
limits for alpha at 90.0% CI
tc = 1.65132 at 237 d.f.
alpha in -38.8661 +- 3.32533 = [-42.1914, -35.5408]
r2 = 0.627726
calculated Spearman corr = 0.771690
Testing:
H0: vars are independent
|r| > rc (0.432000 2-sided) at 1%; reject H0
Durbin-Watson d = 0.033817
d < dL (1.665418): Positive auto-corr at 5%

Explanation of numbers:

Both the (b) Spearman test (at 99% confidence) and (a) LS T-test (at >99%
confidence) show an increasing trend. The r2 shows there are more
effects in this short period than for the dataset as a whole.
Now the effects of other things like volcanic erupts or variations
in solar radiation account for approx 100-62.7 = 36% of the variation in
year-to-year temp anomaly. I.e. the year-on-year trend still swamps
all other effects combined 2:1.
And the model estimated by (a) show a trend of almost 2 deg per C
of anomalous warming.

This same kind of thing can be done to relate (e.g.) a suspected
connection between CO2 levels and anomalous warming. Rather than
just assume that a trend exists over time we can nail it to a suspected
cause, if required. If we can estimate what the variation
in anomalous temp vs CO2 concentration, and we can estimate how
this concentration is expected to change over time (perhaps not
linearly) then we can better estimate any change in anomalous temp.
Of course, maybe there *is* no statistically significant link. :)
But the analysis has been done, and we sure there is such a link
in the data, confirming the hypothesis that increasing CO2 levels
is influencing the observed anomalous temp increase.
--
R Kym Horsell <***@kymhorsell.com>

If your ideas are any good you'll have to ram them down people's throats.
-- Howard Aiken
o nbz o
2010-11-18 01:33:29 UTC
Permalink
Post by Surfer
Post by bo nz o
Post by DonH
Global warming is a direct result of air pollution,
PROVE IT!
Basic physics predicts that CO2 in the atmosphere obstructs radiation
of certain wavelengths of infrared heat from the earths surface.
Here's what "Basic physics predicts" ...



The first 50 ppm of CO2 operates as a powerful greenhouse gas.

After that, CO2 has done its job, which is why there has been no runaway
greenhouse in the past when CO2 was far higher.



http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25552775-5013479,00.html







Warmest Regards



B0nz0



"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville



"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."

Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics



"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated



Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher



"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."

Bertrand Russell
Surfer
2010-11-19 06:58:59 UTC
Permalink
Post by o nbz o
Here's what "Basic physics predicts" ...
The first 50 ppm of CO2 operates as a powerful greenhouse gas.
After that, CO2 has done its job, which is why there has been no runaway
greenhouse in the past when CO2 was far higher.
http://www.bbm.me.uk/portsdown/PH_120_Envmnt.htm

<Start extract>

Estimates suggest that at the beginning of the Cretaceous, the Global
Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) was around 20°C (about 5° hotter than
today's value of 15°C), and was about the same at the period's end -
but peaked to a high of 25°C in the Upper Cretaceous.
These high temperatures were due to the much higher level of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere at the time - which has been suggested as
being 4 times as much as is in our air today.

<End extract>

That was a natural greenhouse effect.

Perhaps not a 'runaway', but do we want to get it back again?
b o nz o
2010-11-20 03:13:12 UTC
Permalink
Post by Surfer
Post by o nbz o
Here's what "Basic physics predicts" ...
The first 50 ppm of CO2 operates as a powerful greenhouse gas.
After that, CO2 has done its job, which is why there has been no runaway
greenhouse in the past when CO2 was far higher.
http://www.bbm.me.uk/portsdown/PH_120_Envmnt.htm
<Start extract>
Estimates suggest that at the beginning of the Cretaceous, the Global
Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) was around 20°C (about 5° hotter than
today's value of 15°C), and was about the same at the period's end -
but peaked to a high of 25°C in the Upper Cretaceous.
These high temperatures were due to the much higher level of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere at the time - which has been suggested as
being 4 times as much as is in our air today.
]

Garbage!
It has been observed that CO2 FOLLOWS temperature fluctuations by about 800
years.



Warmest Regards

B0nz0

"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville

"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."
Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics

"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated

Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher

"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."
Bertrand Russell
Sapient Fridge
2010-11-20 13:27:16 UTC
Permalink
Post by b o nz o
Post by Surfer
Post by o nbz o
Here's what "Basic physics predicts" ...
The first 50 ppm of CO2 operates as a powerful greenhouse gas.
After that, CO2 has done its job, which is why there has been no runaway
greenhouse in the past when CO2 was far higher.
http://www.bbm.me.uk/portsdown/PH_120_Envmnt.htm
<Start extract>
Estimates suggest that at the beginning of the Cretaceous, the Global
Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) was around 20°C (about 5° hotter than
today's value of 15°C), and was about the same at the period's end -
but peaked to a high of 25°C in the Upper Cretaceous.
These high temperatures were due to the much higher level of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere at the time - which has been suggested as
being 4 times as much as is in our air today.
]
Garbage!
It has been observed that CO2 FOLLOWS temperature fluctuations by about 800
years.
The Earth starts to warm due to solar variations (e.g. the sunspot and Milankovitch cycles) that then releases CO2 stored in natural sinks. That
additional CO2 then warms the planet far more than solar forcing on its own would have done. The observed lag is the time between the original solar
warming and the CO2 warming taking over:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm

At the moment solar forcing is dropping so the planet should be cooling, it's getting warmer rapidly due to the additional CO2 that we have dumped in
the atmosphere. The CO2 sinks such as the frozen permafrost in Siberia will melt releasing even more CO2:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/01/100111102536.htm

The thing that the deniers forget is they still have to account for the rising temperatures. We know it's not solar forcing so what is it?

http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm

Like the creationists fighting evolution without providing positive evidence for their side of the argument, the deniers say that it's not CO2 but fail to
propose a viable replacement theory.
--
***@spamsights.org ICQ #17887309 * Save the net *
Grok: http://spam.abuse.net http://www.cauce.org * nuke a spammer *
Find: http://www.samspade.org http://www.netdemon.net * today *
Kill: http://mail-abuse.com http://au.sorbs.net http://spamhaus.org
123bo n z o
2010-11-22 05:27:39 UTC
Permalink
Post by Sapient Fridge
Post by b o nz o
Post by Surfer
Post by o nbz o
Here's what "Basic physics predicts" ...
The first 50 ppm of CO2 operates as a powerful greenhouse gas.
After that, CO2 has done its job, which is why there has been no runaway
greenhouse in the past when CO2 was far higher.
http://www.bbm.me.uk/portsdown/PH_120_Envmnt.htm
<Start extract>
Estimates suggest that at the beginning of the Cretaceous, the Global
Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) was around 20°C (about 5° hotter than
today's value of 15°C), and was about the same at the period's end -
but peaked to a high of 25°C in the Upper Cretaceous.
These high temperatures were due to the much higher level of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere at the time - which has been suggested as
being 4 times as much as is in our air today.
]
Garbage!
It has been observed that CO2 FOLLOWS temperature fluctuations by about 800
years.
The Earth starts to warm due to solar variations (e.g. the sunspot and
Milankovitch cycles) that then releases CO2 stored in natural sinks. That
additional CO2 then warms the planet far more than solar forcing on its
own would have done. The observed lag is the time between the original
http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm
At the moment solar forcing is dropping so the planet should be cooling,
it's getting warmer rapidly due to the additional CO2 that we have dumped
in the atmosphere. The CO2 sinks such as the frozen permafrost in
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/01/100111102536.htm
The thing that the deniers forget is they still have to account for the
rising temperatures. We know it's not solar forcing so what is it?
http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm
Like the creationists fighting evolution without providing positive
evidence for their side of the argument, the deniers say that it's not CO2
but fail to propose a viable replacement theory.
The PDO Plus AMO Provide Twice The Correlation Of CO2 To US Temperatures

23 Mar 2009



QUOTE: Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has
occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather
than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases over land.





The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was identified in the late 1990s,
while the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) was identified in 2000.



This figure compares the PDO+AMO with the US average annual temperatures
with an r-squared of 0.85 between the two - an extremely good correlation

[http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?a=127].



A 2008 study - "Oceanic Influences on Recent Continental Warming",
[http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/gilbert.p.compo/CompoSardeshmukh2007a.pdf]
states: "Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has
occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather
than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) over land.
Atmospheric model simulations of the last half-century with prescribed
observed ocean temperature changes, but without prescribed GHG changes,
account for most of the land warming.

. Several recent studies suggest that the observed SST variability may be
misrepresented in the coupled models used in preparing the IPCC's Fourth
Assessment Report, with substantial errors on interannual and decadal
scales."



The PDO also correlates with the solar Hale cycle.



See also: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/PDO_AMO.htm



http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/GW_SimplifiedNutshell.htm





Warmest Regards



B0nz0



"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville



"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."

Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics



"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated



Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher



"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."

Bertrand Russell
k***@kymhorsell.com
2010-11-24 15:53:31 UTC
Permalink
In sci.skeptic 123bo n z o <***@huu.com> wrote:
[...]
Post by @B_O`N#Z*O
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
[... numerous other quotes ... ]
Post by @B_O`N#Z*O
You do realise that what you have described is "an appeal to authority" -
[...] and not the scientific method.
[seems to apply selectively]
-- Peter Webb <***@diespamdieoptusnet.com.au>, 23 Nov 2010
--
R Kym Horsell <***@kymhorsell.com>

They said it was only luck. But the more I practised, the luckier I got.
-- Gary Player [and others]
Mr Posting Robot
2011-03-09 03:30:03 UTC
Permalink
NewsCorp's Environmental Hypocrisy

Union of Concerned Scientists
March 8, 2011

Washington -- Kevin Knobloch, president of the Union of Concerned Scientists,
wrote the following commentary regarding News Corp's hypocritical position on
environmental protection and climate change:

NewsCorp owner Rupert Murdoch announced last wk that his company reduced its
global warming emissions to zero.

They did it by reducing some of their emissions and paying others to do so
through "carbon offsets."

But Murdoch's calculations do not include another form of pollution: the
constant stream of misinformation NewsCorp subsidiary Fox News routinely
broadcasts about climate science to millions of viewers.

It may come as a surprise, but NewsCorp has an official policy to "engage our
audiences and enable them to find ways to reduce carbon emissions in their own l
ives."

Carbon neutral or not, NewsCorp is failing badly at that mission.

Take a typical episode of Sean Hannity's program. During one show in 2009,
Hannity erroneously claimed the y had been the "ninth coldest" on record.

In fact, according to NASA, 2009 was the second warmest y globally on
average since reliable measurements began in the 1880s.

Hannity also has called global warming "a huge cover up." Similarly, his colleag
ue,
Glenn Beck, has accused climate scientists of "fudging" numbers and "lying."

Hannity's and Beck's statements are flat-out fabrications. The major
conclusions of climate science have been vetted as thoroughly - if not more so
-- than any other modern scientific field. That's why the US National Academy
of Sciences and its counterpart institutions in other nations wrote in 2009
that "the need for urgent action to address climate change is now indisputable."

Fox News' failure to accurately communicate the truth about climate change
also extends to its "news" programs.

Last Dec, for example, Media Matters released an email from Fox News
Washington Managing Editor Bill Sammon in which he urged news staff to
highlight criticisms of climate science whenever they mention it.

Similarly, "Fox & Friends" anchor Steve Doocy did an interview this winter in
which he sarcastically talked about climate change outside Fox's New York City
studio following a snow storm. Doocy interviewed an author with a conspiracy
theory view of climate science rather than an actual scientist. Then a person
wearing a polar bear costume wandered behind Doocy, presumably to add some
color to Fox's "news production."

It's worth pointing out that there have been some uncharacteristic bright
spots in Fox News' climate coverage.

In July 2009, for example, Bill O'Reilly forcefully corrected commentator
Laura Ingraham when she claimed the Earth is cooling.

"That's not what the temperatures say, but okay," O'Reilly said.

O'Reilly is no environmentalist. But unlike some of his fellow commentators at
Fox, he understands the distinction between climate change science and climate
change policies.

Confusing the public about the reality of climate change not only undermines
attempts to implement policies that would give us a fighting chance to prevent
the worst consequences of climate change; it also undermines the nation's
ability to adapt to future climate change. The science is clear that climate
change is threatens our economy, public health and well-being. No amount of
denial will stop rising seas, increasing droughts and extreme precipitation
events or more severe wildfires.

But Fox News' misinformation seems to work. While scientists have conclusively
shown that human activities are driving climate change, 30% of regular
Fox News viewers surveyed in a University of Maryland / WorldPublicOpinion.org
poll thought that scientists have concluded exactly the opposite. Meanwhile,
only 12% of the general public polled in that survey shares that inaccurate view
.

It's admirable that Rupert Murdoch sees the value of limiting and offsetting
his own company's carbon emissions. But that effort is an empty gesture if he
fails to take action to stem the efforts of his flagship US news organization
to mislead the American public about a critical scientific and policy
issue. Imagine what a difference it could make if Fox News chose instead to
provide its viewers with accurate information.

If "carbon neutrality" is good for NewsCorp, why isn't Fox News pointing out
why that's good for the for the rest of us, too?

The good news is we still have the opportunity to avoid the worst consequences
of climate change. Any responsible debate about climate change should be over
how we can most cost-effectively reduce carbon emissions and reap the benefits
of switching to cleaner energy sources. Burning less fossil fuel will mean
cleaner air, a more resilient economy, and a stronger nation.

Because we are already feeling the effects of too much carbon, however, we
must also figure out what we should do to adapt to ongoing changes. When Fox
News argues about whether or not human activity is driving climate change, it
is wasting valuable time.

With the help of my organization, more than 35k Americans have sent Murdoch
letters asking him to curb Fox News' noise pollution. He has yet to respond.

Future generations probably won't remember that Murdoch made NewsCorp carbon
neutral. But if Fox News continues to deceive the public about the
overwhelming evidence that human activity is causing climate change, future
generations will almost certainly know that his company's policy of "distract,
deny and delay" helped block action on climate change at a critical moment.


The Union of Concerned Scientists is the leading US science-based nonprofit
organization working for a healthy environment and a safer world. Founded in
1969, UCS is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and also has offices
in Berkeley, Chicago and Washington, D.C.

MYREF: 20110309143002 msg2011030911909

[133 more news items]

---
[A]s a Conservative, I have no tolerance for ambiguity.
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [86 nyms and counting], 14 Jan 2011 14:46 +1100
dudupeed
2011-03-09 03:42:09 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mr Posting Robot
NewsCorp's Environmental Hypocrisy
Add one more to the list ....

Warmist OOZES Sincerity As She Preaches Earth Hour Abstinence From Her
Private Jet

This proves how ridiculously easy it is to con one-eyed leftist whackos!

March 9 2011







IT must be a rule somewhere that only the most shameless hypocrites are
allowed to lead the global warming faith.



After all, how do you explain Use Less preacher Al Gore, with his five
houses and monster electricity bills?



How do you explain Sir Richard Brazen, spruiking global warming while
running a massive fleet of gas-blasting jets?



How do explain alarmist of the year Tim Flannery, paid by the Gillard
Government to sell us a tax to cut emissions, after being hired by Brazen's
Virgin Galactic to help sell joyrides into space, so millionaires can emit
one great belch of gas for a few minutes of weightlessness?



And how do you explain the choice of Miranda Kerr?



I was struck on the weekend by this glad report in The Age:



Green is, like, so hot right now, thanks to Australian model Miranda Kerr,
who has been named Earth Hour's global ambassador.



Kerr, a self-styled earth mother who gave birth to her first son, Flynn, in
January, and has an organic skin-care range and blog, has pledged to turn
off the lights on Saturday, March 26-whether she's at her plush New York pad
or her luxurious LA digs.



Kerr even put out a statement for Earth Hour, during which thousands of our
most eager warmists will cut their lights for an hour-but only an hour-to
show they care about global warming, but not quite enough to, like, cut
their lights every day or something.



Said Kerr: "Each of us has a responsibility for the sustainability of our
planet and each of us can make a difference if we choose to do so."



Not that Kerr herself chooses to make that much difference, of course.



This, after all, is the woman who reportedly last "arrived in Australia via
private plane" and who regularly jets around the world being a supermodel,
trailing the obligatory contrails.



Indeed, she even helps to endorse airplane travel, posing in front of the
Virgin jet that Sir Richard had renamed "Airline of the Angels" to fly her
and a few other models around to flog Victoria's Secret bras.



Kerr's personal tastes seem to attract her not only to this lifestyle of
carbon villainy but (reportedly) to jetting off to the parties of those
engaging in the real stuff, too.



A few days ago, US diplomatic cables unearthed by WikiLeaks revealed that
Beyonce was paid a seven-figure sum to gyrate at a party in the Caribbean
thrown by one of the sons of Libya's mad Colonel Muammar Gaddafi-and
newspapers claimed Kerr was among the audience.



A question to the World Wildlife Fund: If we all emitted as Kerr emits, and
not as she preaches, would our total emissions soar or fall? In light of
your answer, were you fools or frauds to make her your Earth Hour
ambassador?



And a question to the Fairfax newspapers -- The Age and The Sydney Morning
Herald-who so lightly fill their pages with fluff about Kerr making Earth
Hour "hot", and how Australia's Earth Hour this year "is expected to be one
of the biggest".



Does the fact that Fairfax sponsors Earth Hour explain why you now run
propaganda about it?



In truth, Earth Hour here has lately lost support, with some two-thirds of
businesses dropping out in Melbourne last year.



Now making a hypocrite like Kerr the new face of this stunt simply seals the
deal.



We're just being conned.



http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/column_an_earth_hour_lecture_delivered_from_the_pointy_end_of_a_jet/





Warmest Regards



B0nz0



"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville



"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"

Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,
Former IPCC Lead Author



"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."

Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics



"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated



Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher



"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."

Bertrand Russell

123bo n z o
2010-11-22 05:32:27 UTC
Permalink
<snip>
Thank you - couldn't have said it better myself. But mentioning correct
scientific method to these AGWers is like throwing a pork chop into a
mosque.
1) Make observations and gather data
2) Create a hypothesis which explains the data and makes predictions
3) Try to prove the hypothesis wrong by testing those predictions
4) If no counterexamples can be found then it becomes a theory
So, having got the definition out of the way, where are the observations
the don't fit into the current climate theories regarding global warming
from CO2 pollution?
In what way do you think that this climate science doesn't follow the
scientific method?
There are *lots* of invalid claims which have been refuted one by one,
http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php
The Difference Between True Science And Cargo-Cult "Science"

According the Faculty Senate of the University of Virginia, "science," and
indeed "scholarship" in general, is no longer an attempt to establish truth
by replicable experiment, or by looking at evidence that can be checked by
anyone.

"Truth" is now to be established by the decree of powerful authority, by
"peer review".

Wasn't the whole point of the Enlightenment to avoid exactly this?....

Appeal to authority establishes nothing.

28 Jul 2010





QUOTE: Compare Feynman's scientific integrity with the continual attempts by
the leaders of climate "science" to prevent skeptics from checking their
data.

True scientists would be extremely pleased to provide all raw data, and they
would make the data available to all on the Internet. A state attorney
general would not have to file suit to make them disgorge.







"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts" is how the great Nobel
Prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman defined science in his article "What
is Science?" Feynman emphasized this definition by repeating it in a
stand-alone sentence in extra large typeface in his article. (Feynman's
essay is available online, but behind a subscription wall: The Physics
Teacher (1969) volume 7, starting page 313.)



Immediately after his definition of science, Feynman wrote: "When someone
says, 'Science teaches such and such,' he is using the word incorrectly.
Science doesn't teach anything; experience teaches it. If they say to you,
'Science has shown such and such,' you should ask, 'How does science show
it? How did the scientists find out? How? What? Where?' It should not be
'science has shown.' And you have as much right as anyone else, upon hearing
about the experiments (but be patient and listen to all the evidence) to
judge whether a sensible conclusion has been arrived at."



And I say, Amen.



Notice that "you" is the average person.



You have the right to hear the evidence, and you have the right to judge
whether the evidence supports the conclusion. We now use the phrase
"scientific consensus," or "peer review," rather than "science has shown."
By whatever name, the idea is balderdash. Feynman was absolutely correct.



When the attorney general of Virginia sued to force Michael Mann of "hockey
stick" fame to provide the raw data he used, and the complete computer
program used to analyze the data, so that "you" could decide, the Faculty
Senate of the University of Virginia (where Mann was a professor at the time
he defended the hockey stick) declared this request - Feynman's request - to
be an outrage.



You peons, the Faculty Senate decreed, must simply accept the conclusions of
any "scientific endeavor that has satisfied peer review standards."



Feynman's - and the attorney general's and my own and other scientists' -
request for the raw data, so we can "judge whether a sensible conclusion has
been arrived at," would, according to the Faculty Senate, "send a chilling
message to scientists . and indeed scholars in any discipline."



According the Faculty Senate of the University of Virginia, "science," and
indeed "scholarship" in general, is no longer an attempt to establish truth
by replicable experiment, or by looking at evidence that can be checked by
anyone. "Truth" is now to be established by the decree of powerful
authority, by "peer review."



Wasn't the whole point of the Enlightenment to avoid exactly this?



Appeal to authority establishes nothing.



"Experts" who claim otherwise are thereby showing themselves to be
non-experts. The University of Virginia faculty members who supported this
anti-science resolution have shown themselves to be unworthy to teach at an
American university. They have shown themselves to have no understanding of
the meaning of the word "scholarship."



There are all too many such professors at the leading American universities.
Which is why Feynman defined science to be a belief in the ignorance of such
people. They are ignorant. Feynman used the expression "cargo-cult science"
to describe the "science" done by such people.



In the South Pacific during the Second World War, the locals noticed that
cargo planes would fly into airports that had been established on their
islands, and unload vast amounts of goodies. The natives wanted the wealth
too, so they hacked runways out of the jungle, made "radar antennas" out of
wood, and sat at "radio sets" they had also fashioned out of wood. To their
eyes, it looked like the real thing, but alas, no planes arrived with cargo.
The native "cargo-cult" airport had the superficial appearance of an
airport, but not the reality.



Many areas of "science" today have the superficial appearance of true
science, but not the reality. Climate "science" is an example.



How does one distinguish between science and pseudoscience, between true
science and cargo-cult science?



Many believe that Karl Popper's falsifiability criterion provides it, but
Popper's criterion has numerous difficulties, which philosophers have
pointed out. Feynman has provided a much better way to test for true science
in his essay "Cargo-Cult Science":



. there is one feature I notice that is generally missing in cargo cult
science. . It's a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific
thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty - a kind of leaning over
backwards. For example, if you're doing an experiment, you should report
everything that you think might make it invalid - not only what you think is
right about it: other causes that could possibly explain your results; and
things you thought of that you've eliminated by some other experiment, and
how they worked - to make sure the other fellow can tell they have been
eliminated.



Compare Feynman's scientific integrity with the continual attempts by the
leaders of climate "science" to prevent skeptics from checking their data.



True scientists would be extremely pleased to provide all raw data, and they
would make the data available to all on the Internet. A state attorney
general would not have to file suit to make them disgorge.



http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-difference-between-true-science-and-cargo-cult-science/?singlepage=true





Warmest Regards



B0nz0



"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville



"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."

Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics



"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated



Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher



"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."

Bertrand Russell
Oy rool out a carbon tax
2010-11-22 07:01:39 UTC
Permalink
Post by 123bo n z o
<snip>
Thank you - couldn't have said it better myself. But mentioning correct
scientific method to these AGWers is like throwing a pork chop into a
mosque.
1) Make observations and gather data
2) Create a hypothesis which explains the data and makes predictions
3) Try to prove the hypothesis wrong by testing those predictions
4) If no counterexamples can be found then it becomes a theory
So, having got the definition out of the way, where are the observations
the don't fit into the current climate theories regarding global warming
from CO2 pollution?
In what way do you think that this climate science doesn't follow the
scientific method?
There are *lots* of invalid claims which have been refuted one by one,
http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php
The Difference Between True Science And Cargo-Cult "Science"
According the Faculty Senate of the University of Virginia, "science," and
indeed "scholarship" in general, is no longer an attempt to establish truth
by replicable experiment, or by looking at evidence that can be checked by
anyone.
"Truth" is now to be established by the decree of powerful authority, by
"peer review".
And as we know, the term "peer" should be most accurately replaced by
"mates" in the context of the AGW cult cabal.
Post by 123bo n z o
Wasn't the whole point of the Enlightenment to avoid exactly this?....
Appeal to authority establishes nothing.
28 Jul 2010
QUOTE: Compare Feynman's scientific integrity with the continual attempts by
the leaders of climate "science" to prevent skeptics from checking their
data.
True scientists would be extremely pleased to provide all raw data, and they
would make the data available to all on the Internet. A state attorney
general would not have to file suit to make them disgorge.
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts" is how the great Nobel
Prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman defined science in his article "What
is Science?" Feynman emphasized this definition by repeating it in a
stand-alone sentence in extra large typeface in his article. (Feynman's
essay is available online, but behind a subscription wall: The Physics
Teacher (1969) volume 7, starting page 313.)
Immediately after his definition of science, Feynman wrote: "When someone
says, 'Science teaches such and such,' he is using the word incorrectly.
Science doesn't teach anything; experience teaches it. If they say to you,
'Science has shown such and such,' you should ask, 'How does science show
it? How did the scientists find out? How? What? Where?' It should not be
'science has shown.' And you have as much right as anyone else, upon hearing
about the experiments (but be patient and listen to all the evidence) to
judge whether a sensible conclusion has been arrived at."
And I say, Amen.
Notice that "you" is the average person.
You have the right to hear the evidence, and you have the right to judge
whether the evidence supports the conclusion. We now use the phrase
"scientific consensus," or "peer review," rather than "science has shown."
By whatever name, the idea is balderdash. Feynman was absolutely correct.
When the attorney general of Virginia sued to force Michael Mann of "hockey
stick" fame to provide the raw data he used, and the complete computer
program used to analyze the data, so that "you" could decide, the Faculty
Senate of the University of Virginia (where Mann was a professor at the time
he defended the hockey stick) declared this request - Feynman's request - to
be an outrage.
You peons, the Faculty Senate decreed, must simply accept the conclusions of
any "scientific endeavor that has satisfied peer review standards."
Feynman's - and the attorney general's and my own and other scientists' -
request for the raw data, so we can "judge whether a sensible conclusion has
been arrived at," would, according to the Faculty Senate, "send a chilling
message to scientists . and indeed scholars in any discipline."
According the Faculty Senate of the University of Virginia, "science," and
indeed "scholarship" in general, is no longer an attempt to establish truth
by replicable experiment, or by looking at evidence that can be checked by
anyone. "Truth" is now to be established by the decree of powerful
authority, by "peer review."
Wasn't the whole point of the Enlightenment to avoid exactly this?
Appeal to authority establishes nothing.
"Experts" who claim otherwise are thereby showing themselves to be
non-experts. The University of Virginia faculty members who supported this
anti-science resolution have shown themselves to be unworthy to teach at an
American university. They have shown themselves to have no understanding of
the meaning of the word "scholarship."
There are all too many such professors at the leading American universities.
Which is why Feynman defined science to be a belief in the ignorance of such
people. They are ignorant. Feynman used the expression "cargo-cult science"
to describe the "science" done by such people.
In the South Pacific during the Second World War, the locals noticed that
cargo planes would fly into airports that had been established on their
islands, and unload vast amounts of goodies. The natives wanted the wealth
too, so they hacked runways out of the jungle, made "radar antennas" out of
wood, and sat at "radio sets" they had also fashioned out of wood. To their
eyes, it looked like the real thing, but alas, no planes arrived with cargo.
The native "cargo-cult" airport had the superficial appearance of an
airport, but not the reality.
Many areas of "science" today have the superficial appearance of true
science, but not the reality. Climate "science" is an example.
How does one distinguish between science and pseudoscience, between true
science and cargo-cult science?
Many believe that Karl Popper's falsifiability criterion provides it, but
Popper's criterion has numerous difficulties, which philosophers have
pointed out. Feynman has provided a much better way to test for true science
. there is one feature I notice that is generally missing in cargo cult
science. . It's a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific
thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty - a kind of leaning over
backwards. For example, if you're doing an experiment, you should report
everything that you think might make it invalid - not only what you think is
right about it: other causes that could possibly explain your results; and
things you thought of that you've eliminated by some other experiment, and
how they worked - to make sure the other fellow can tell they have been
eliminated.
Compare Feynman's scientific integrity with the continual attempts by the
leaders of climate "science" to prevent skeptics from checking their data.
True scientists would be extremely pleased to provide all raw data, and they
would make the data available to all on the Internet. A state attorney
general would not have to file suit to make them disgorge.
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-difference-between-true-science-and-cargo-cult-science/?singlepage=true
Warmest Regards
B0nz0
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."
Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics
"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated
Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher
"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."
Bertrand Russell
--
Labor-Green open borders plan in action...

Number of illegal aliens in detention (nearest hundred):

Jan 2005 __________ 1000
Jul 2005 ________ 800
Jan 2006 _________ 900
Jul 2006 ______ 600
Jan 2007 _____ 500
Jul 2007 ____ 400
Jan 2008 ____ 400
Jul 2008 ___ 300
Jan 2009 ___ 300 -> Rudd stops TPVs
Jul 2009 __________ 1000
Jan 2010 _________________ 1700
Jul 2010 ______________________________ 2000

Boat watch alert: 4 boats arrive in last 2 days - 7/11/2010
- more than 6000 people arrive in 2010 and 121 boats
- 35 boats arrive since the 21/8/2010 election - more than 1700 people
Sapient Fridge
2010-11-22 22:01:53 UTC
Permalink
In message <4cea006a$***@dnews.tpgi.com.au>, 123bo n z o <***@huu.com>
writes
Post by 123bo n z o
<snip>
Thank you - couldn't have said it better myself. But mentioning correct
scientific method to these AGWers is like throwing a pork chop into a
mosque.
1) Make observations and gather data
2) Create a hypothesis which explains the data and makes predictions
3) Try to prove the hypothesis wrong by testing those predictions
4) If no counterexamples can be found then it becomes a theory
So, having got the definition out of the way, where are the observations
the don't fit into the current climate theories regarding global warming
from CO2 pollution?
In what way do you think that this climate science doesn't follow the
scientific method?
There are *lots* of invalid claims which have been refuted one by one,
http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php
The Difference Between True Science And Cargo-Cult "Science"
You forgot to provide any evidence that the theory of AGW was incorrect
or that any of the information on the web site I referenced was wrong.

Want to try again?

<snip - cut and paste rant with nothing to do with the subject in hand>
--
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Sapient Fridge
2010-11-22 22:02:34 UTC
Permalink
In message <***@dnews.tpgi.com.au>, 123bo n z o <***@huu.com>
writes
<snip>
Actually it has. There is ample evidence that CO2 is warming the
planet. We know the mechanism, it matches the predications and it
explains the observations. In fact it is the only explanation we have
remaining which explains why the planet temperature is rising, the
others have been ruled out because they don't match the observations.
Huh?
CO2 vs Temperature Correlation Just 0.07
18 Jul 2009
The graph below demonstrates virtually NO CORRELATION between CO2 and
temperature.
R-squared correlation strength of just 0.07.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/17/ipcc-lead-author-on-global-warming
-conclusions-were-not-scientifically-there-yet/
Nice cherry picking of the data so it only goes from 1997 onwards.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm

Try looking at the longer term picture.

Loading Image...

http://www.skepticalscience.com/The-CO2-Temperature-correlation-over-the-20th-Century.html

<snip>
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k***@kymhorsell.com
2010-11-23 00:28:38 UTC
Permalink
In sci.skeptic Sapient Fridge <***@spamsights.org> wrote:
...
Post by Sapient Fridge
The graph below demonstrates virtually NO CORRELATION between CO2 and
temperature.
R-squared correlation strength of just 0.07.
...
Post by Sapient Fridge
Nice cherry picking of the data so it only goes from 1997 onwards.
...

I've seen "work" like this since the 90s. Usually they don't have
the wherewithall to do an r2 on it. :)

Othert tricks I've seen used to make sure r2 is small is
(a) don't remove outliers -- sometimes just having 1 big outlier
can put so much noise into the statistics it will make r2 < .1 all
by itself.
(b) don't handle missing values in small datasets -- just throw them out.
this also can introduce transition noise that will kill and r2.

Of course the idea an r2 usually doesn't come with a confidence
interval and therefore is't by itself any kind of statistic
is beyond the honest bunglers. The others type probably know. :)
--
R Kym Horsell <***@kymhorsell.com>

$>This seems to be saying "in logic or philosphy an inverted if or circular
$>argument are no good -- but in science we have different standards".
$You're right. That's exactly what I'm saying.
-- Mike Franklin <***@msn.com>, 20 Nov 2010
Sapient Fridge
2010-11-22 22:03:32 UTC
Permalink
In message <***@dnews.tpgi.com.au>, 123bo n z o <***@huu.com>
writes
<snip>
The difference between science and religion is that science is
testable, religion isn't. There are little things called "evidence"
and "observations" that back up the science showing that global
warming is happening.
Gee, you seemed to have conflated two completely different ideas - the
belief that climate is changing, and the belief that anthropogenic CO2
is to blame.
Did you genuinely not know they were different questions? Or were you
trying to be deceitful by pretending they were, even though you know
they are not the same thing?
The climate is warming, that is an observation i.e. it is a fact.
Huh?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record

"Each of the last 13 years (1997–2009) was one of the 14 warmest on
record."

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2010/jan/HQ_10-017_Warmest_temps.html

http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm

<snip>
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123bo n z o
2010-11-23 03:37:11 UTC
Permalink
The climate is warming, that is an observation i.e. it is a fact.
0.6 degrees in a century. Please provide a representative sample of
centuries.
What would that show? Humans have never dumped this amount of CO2 in the
atmosphere before so previous centuries temperatures are not terribly
useful in predicting what is ahead.
About 220 gigatons of CO2 enters the atmosphere each year from natural
sources and about 220 gigatons leaves the atmosphere. It's in
equilibrium. The problem is that humans are adding about 26 gigatons per
year and that has nowhere to go, so it builds up.
http://www.research.noaa.gov/spotlite/archive/spot_jimomedal.html
Think of it this way, if you have an income of $100,000 and spend $100,000
a year then you are fine. If you spend $105,000 a year then eventually
you will become bankrupt even though the additional amount is a small
proportion of your income.
Actually even if you don't think that AGW is happening it's worth
supporting moves off fossil fuels anyway, we are past peak oil
Oh really?
You wish!


Peak Oil Postponed

July 15 2008



No need to panic about peak oil just yet:



In the Americas, proven oil reserves have increased from 170 billion barrels
to 180 billion barrels over the last two decades, according to the 2008
Statistical World Review from British Petroleum.



In Europe and Eurasia, proven oil reserves almost doubled, from 76 billion
barrels to 144.



And the Middle East, the gas tank of the world, shows no sign of slowing
down-its reserves soared by almost 200 billion barrels, from a whopping 567
billion barrels to a super-whopping 756.



Bottom line for the world:

an incredible 36% increase in oil reserves during the two decades that saw
the greatest globalization-spurred oil consumption in the history of
mankind. And that doesn't include the 152 billion barrels in proven oil
reserves obtainable from Canada's tar sands. Is there any reason to doubt
that the next two decades won't build on the steady growth of the last two?



These oil reserves aren't the end of it.



These figures-for the year ending December 2006-represent oil that's not
only known to be available, but also economic at 2006 prices using 2006
technology.



Since prices have soared in the last year, and technology has improved too,
BP's annual assessment for the 2007 year will show greater proven oil
reserves still.



http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/peak_oil_postponed/





Warmest Regards



B0nz0



"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville



"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."

Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics



"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated



Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher



"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."

Bertrand Russell
Sapient Fridge
2010-11-24 07:37:35 UTC
Permalink
In message <4ceb36e1$***@dnews.tpgi.com.au>, 123bo n z o <***@huu.com>
writes
Post by 123bo n z o
The climate is warming, that is an observation i.e. it is a fact.
0.6 degrees in a century. Please provide a representative sample of
centuries.
What would that show? Humans have never dumped this amount of CO2 in the
atmosphere before so previous centuries temperatures are not terribly
useful in predicting what is ahead.
About 220 gigatons of CO2 enters the atmosphere each year from natural
sources and about 220 gigatons leaves the atmosphere. It's in
equilibrium. The problem is that humans are adding about 26 gigatons per
year and that has nowhere to go, so it builds up.
http://www.research.noaa.gov/spotlite/archive/spot_jimomedal.html
Think of it this way, if you have an income of $100,000 and spend $100,000
a year then you are fine. If you spend $105,000 a year then eventually
you will become bankrupt even though the additional amount is a small
proportion of your income.
Actually even if you don't think that AGW is happening it's worth
supporting moves off fossil fuels anyway, we are past peak oil
Oh really?
You wish!
Peak Oil Postponed
July 15 2008
In the Americas, proven oil reserves have increased from 170 billion barrels
to 180 billion barrels over the last two decades, according to the 2008
Statistical World Review from British Petroleum.
Peak oil is not the point where we stop finding oil and it's not even
when the reserves start dropping, it is the point where the rate of
extraction slows down.

Since your article doesn't mention the rate of extraction it does
nothing to address the issue of peak oil.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

<snip>
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123bo n z o
2010-11-23 03:40:20 UTC
Permalink
The climate is warming, that is an observation i.e. it is a fact.
0.6 degrees in a century. Please provide a representative sample of
centuries.
What would that show? Humans have never dumped this amount of CO2 in the
atmosphere before so previous centuries temperatures are not terribly
useful in predicting what is ahead.
About 220 gigatons of CO2 enters the atmosphere each year from natural
sources and about 220 gigatons leaves the atmosphere. It's in
equilibrium. The problem is that humans are adding about 26 gigatons per
year and that has nowhere to go, so it builds up.
http://www.research.noaa.gov/spotlite/archive/spot_jimomedal.html
Think of it this way, if you have an income of $100,000 and spend $100,000
a year then you are fine. If you spend $105,000 a year then eventually
you will become bankrupt even though the additional amount is a small
proportion of your income.
Actually even if you don't think that AGW is happening it's worth
supporting moves off fossil fuels anyway, we are past peak oil
Oh and don't forget coal!


Bad Luck Warmie Whackos, Preventing Mythical Manmade Climate Change is the
Last Thing on the Coal Industry's Mind.



Coal consumption increasing at a geometric rate.

The coal bosses' plan: mine coal, sell coal, repeat until rich

As one English delegate put it: ''The Chinese don't give a stuff about
greenhouse emissions, and nor do I.''

November 14 2010





QUOTE: The most striking thing about the conference was how few people
attended the carbon capture and storage session. An almost full house had
heard Palmer declare green coal the ''only path'' to deal with climate
change. Yet a mere 35 delegates went to the capture and storage session, and
fewer than 20 stayed to the end.











ONCE a year, coal industry bosses gather for the World Coal Conference:
''It's where the coal deals are done,'' says the brochure.



The opening session set the tone. Fred Palmer, vice-president of Peabody
Energy, the world's largest coal company, noted that since the ''great
debate'' on climate change began, coal consumption had gone from 3.6 billion
tonnes a year to almost 7 billion tonnes. By 2030, he predicted it would be
more like 11-12 billion. ''The climate change concerns of people everywhere
are legitimate'', he said, but alleviating energy poverty was ''policy
priority number one''.



On the basis that it would leave billions in energy poverty, he declared it
''immoral to say 'we're not going to touch coal'.'' To those saying
continued coal use depends on developing carbon capture and storage or low
carbon coal, his message was blunt: ''We will use coal, and the world is
going to use more coal.'' Furthermore, ''using more coal to generate
electricity is good for our health and good for our wealth''.



There was a similarly defiant tone when I dropped the subject of climate
change into conversation over lunch. Some openly doubted the science. One
Australian executive said: ''I just don't understand how we can ignore such
an overwhelming body of scientific research'', referring to the work of
climate sceptics. He scoffed at the notion of capturing and storing
emissions: ''It isn't happening and it won't happen''. I run through the
slow pace of carbon capture with a Swiss trader; the G8's goal is to have 20
plants worldwide up and running by 2020. His answer: ''plant trees''. The
clear impression is that Asian-driven coal demand is a more powerful
juggernaut than climate change. As one English delegate put it: ''The
Chinese don't give a stuff about greenhouse emissions, and nor do I.''



The most striking thing about the conference was how few people attended the
carbon capture and storage session. An almost full house had heard Palmer
declare green coal the ''only path'' to deal with climate change. Yet a mere
35 delegates went to the capture and storage session, and fewer than 20
stayed to the end.



During question time, a British executive highlighted the contrast between
the bullish talk about growth in global coal demand and the sparse
attendance at the session. ''Most of the industry isn't really taking
notice'', he warned. Instead, the focus is on supplying developing countries
that have no absolute emissions reduction targets, and where capture is
rarely mentioned.



A spokesman from Brazilian mining giant Vale captured the mindset: ''Every
morning, we get up and pray for China.'' Well they might. China is now
building the equivalent of 10 New York Cities. If investment bank UBS is
right, Chinese annual coal consumption will rise from 3 to 5.5 billion
tonnes by 2020. Many doubt that China's coal industry can grow fast enough
to meet that demand, and some expect India to import 1 billion tonnes of
coal annually by 2020. Coal exporters are rubbing their hands while they
pray.



What's unclear is where the extra coal will come from. The only thing
remotely as crucial to the equation as Chinese demand may be Australian
supply - Australia produces around a third of the world's coal exports, and
more than half the world's metallurgical coal exports.



Increasingly it looks as if projected demand will only be met if Australia
doubles its production. With so much hinging on Australia's continued
willingness to turn a blind eye to the CO2 it exports, it might just be
Australia that the Chinese get up and pray for every morning. At the rate
carbon capture is happening, the world has a hell of a problem if the coal
industry's prayers are answered.





http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/the-coal-bosses-plan-mine-coal-sell-coal-repeat-until-rich-20101113-17rv5.html







Warmest Regards



B0nz0



"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville



"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."

Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics



"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated



Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher



"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."

Bertrand Russell
agigo n bo
2010-11-27 03:38:46 UTC
Permalink
The full effect of today's CO2 is delayed by heat sinks, mainly the
oceans. There is an awful lot of water there and it takes time for it all
to warm up.
http://www.oco.noaa.gov/index.jsp?show_page=page_roc.jsp&nav=universal
There are also positive feedback loops which are only just starting to
kick in e.g. albedo changes from melting ice.
So far no sign of these mythical positive feedbacks!
You have great faith in this my son.
You really should take up religion!




"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"
Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,
Former IPCC Lead Author





Warmest Regards

B0nz0

"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville

"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"
Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,
Former IPCC Lead Author

"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."
Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics

"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated

Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher

"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."
Bertrand Russell
Sapient Fridge
2010-11-27 09:19:02 UTC
Permalink
In message <4cf07d43$***@dnews.tpgi.com.au>, agigo n bo <***@uoy.com>
writes
Post by agigo n bo
The full effect of today's CO2 is delayed by heat sinks, mainly the
oceans. There is an awful lot of water there and it takes time for it all
to warm up.
http://www.oco.noaa.gov/index.jsp?show_page=page_roc.jsp&nav=universal
There are also positive feedback loops which are only just starting to
kick in e.g. albedo changes from melting ice.
So far no sign of these mythical positive feedbacks!
You have great faith in this my son.
You really should take up religion!
No sign? Only because you have your eyes closed.

Methyl hydrates:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8205864.stm

Melting permafrost:
http://www.terranature.org/methaneSiberia.htm

Melting ice:
Loading Image...

Note that the albedo change from melting ice is currently countered by
the fact that felling forests lowers albedo, but that's not a good nor
long term solution.
Post by agigo n bo
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"
Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,
Former IPCC Lead Author
Actually the earth climate has "tipped" several times in the past,
here's the best known two examples:

A cooling one:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowball_earth

A warming one:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/10/071025091047.htm

It does always recover of course, but it takes millions of years to do
so.
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