Discussion:
Dick Smith Joins The Endless List Of Global Warming Hypocrites
@B_ON#Z*O
2010-11-15 00:35:58 UTC
Dick Smith Joins The Endless List Of Global Warming Hypocrites

My research shows that all the world's hypocrites, for some strange reason,
are irresisistably drawn to the warmie whacko camp!

Maybe being a lying leftist whacko automatically qualifies one for the list.

November 15 2010

Yet more evidence that global warming is the first faith to be led
exclusively by hypocrites:

"After criss-crossing the world in his personal helicopter, Dick Smith tells
The Sydney Morning Herald's Good Weekend magazine he's finally nailed who is
responsible for global warming: "

"AFTER my research, it is most likely that humans are affecting climate."

So is Smith willing to share some of that responsibility?

As the Herald's writer Greg Bearup notes:

"HE has a holiday house, a farm with a homestead, a large house with a
swimming pool, two cars, a steam train and all that owning three separate
households entail. He's very open, but for some reason refuses to confirm
just how many aircraft he owns; there are at least two helicopters and a
jet."

Warmest Regards

B0nz0

"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics "A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made global warming." "The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips "Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result" "The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips "Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try at condemning fossil fuels!" http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives. Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher "The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible." Bertrand Russell DonH 2010-11-15 18:26:05 UTC Permalink Post by @B_ON#Z*O Dick Smith Joins The Endless List Of Global Warming Hypocrites My research shows that all the world's hypocrites, for some strange reason, are irresisistably drawn to the warmie whacko camp! Maybe being a lying leftist whacko automatically qualifies one for the list. November 15 2010 Yet more evidence that global warming is the first faith to be led "After criss-crossing the world in his personal helicopter, Dick Smith tells The Sydney Morning Herald's Good Weekend magazine he's finally nailed who is responsible for global warming: " "AFTER my research, it is most likely that humans are affecting climate." So is Smith willing to share some of that responsibility? "HE has a holiday house, a farm with a homestead, a large house with a swimming pool, two cars, a steam train and all that owning three separate households entail. He's very open, but for some reason refuses to confirm just how many aircraft he owns; there are at least two helicopters and a jet." http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/dick_smith_gases_on/ Warmest Regards B0nz0 "It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of
scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that
is distinct from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."
Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics
"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another
try at condemning fossil fuels!"
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated
Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real
problems that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent
cost of a couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women
the daily journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher
"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever
that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the
majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than
sensible."
Bertrand Russell
# The same claim has been made of Al Gore, and can be made of anyone who
becomes aware of the possibility that we humans are a cause, not mere
victim.
With 6.5 billion humans infesting finite planet Earth, we must be making
some kind of impact, especially as most people aspire to a Western
life-style, rather than hand-to-mouth existence - let alone a Dick Smith
extravaganza.
To Dick Smith, quality of life is as important, or more so, than
quantity, and he also hopes to have capitalism without its constant emphasis
on "growth".
DS even has his own population website. See -
http://www.dicksmithpopulation.com.au
The point is - If the human species wishes to survive more than the next
few decades it must change its ways, numbers, and beliefs.
Human population is expected to increase to nine billion by year 2050
AD - if a "crash" does not occur before then.
Besides limiting population, we must recycle everything. Any human
product not recycled accumulates as "waste", and we'll "drown" in our own
garbage: air-sea-land pollution.
We could "have our cake and eat it" if we recycle.
Australia is currently "living off the minerals' back" (used to be
sheep's), but the faster we extract, the sooner we are left with only a hole
in the ground. Frugality (economy) seems indicated - unless all is
recycled.
The reverence people gave to "God" should be transferred to "Nature",
or at least the recognition that we depend on Nature, but it does not depend
on us.
The vast majority of biological species which have ever existed are
extinct. There is nothing so unique about the species Homo Sapiens that it
won't, sooner or later, join the vast majority. On present trends, it is
likely to be sooner.
Global warming is a direct result of air pollution, and, just as we no
longer allow raw sewage to be discharged into the oceans, we should prohibit
raw chimney smoke shitting into the atmosphere.
Skeptics and Deniers may live on in their Fool's Paradise where there
is No Problem, and it is Business as Usual - but Nature, as warped by us, is
not mocked, and its vast machinery will eliminate us with the same
indifference we showed the Dodo or Tasmanian Tiger.
As a Prophet of Doom, I predict the decimation of Homo Sap by 2050 AD
(nuclear WWIII in Middle East?), and extinction by 2099.
The Apeman is a defective species - it has an over-developed brain,
coupled with primitive instincts; a lethal combination. It will fail
Time may prove me wrong - but don't bet on it.
Surfer
2010-11-16 18:23:42 UTC
Post by DonH
The reverence people gave to "God" should be transferred to "Nature",
or at least the recognition that we depend on Nature, but it does not depend
on us.
The vast majority of biological species which have ever existed are
extinct. There is nothing so unique about the species Homo Sapiens that it
won't, sooner or later, join the vast majority. On present trends, it is
likely to be sooner.
Global warming is a direct result of air pollution, and, just as we no
longer allow raw sewage to be discharged into the oceans, we should prohibit
raw chimney smoke shitting into the atmosphere.
Excellent points...
l***@gmail.com
2010-11-19 21:11:56 UTC
The reverence people gave to "God" should be transferred to "Nature",
or at least the recognition that we depend on Nature, but it does not depend
on us.
The vast majority of biological species which have ever existed are
extinct.  There is nothing so unique about the species Homo Sapiens that it
won't, sooner or later, join the vast majority.  On present trends, it is
likely to be sooner.
Global warming is a direct result of air pollution, and, just as we no
longer allow raw sewage to be discharged into the oceans, we should prohibit
raw chimney smoke shitting into the atmosphere.
* Don Humphries is a wee bit confused ...
bo nz o
2010-11-17 01:16:46 UTC
Post by DonH
Post by @B_ON#Z*O
Dick Smith Joins The Endless List Of Global Warming Hypocrites
My research shows that all the world's hypocrites, for some strange
reason, are irresisistably drawn to the warmie whacko camp!
Maybe being a lying leftist whacko automatically qualifies one for the list.
November 15 2010
Yet more evidence that global warming is the first faith to be led
"After criss-crossing the world in his personal helicopter, Dick Smith
tells The Sydney Morning Herald's Good Weekend magazine he's finally
nailed who is responsible for global warming: "
"AFTER my research, it is most likely that humans are affecting climate."
So is Smith willing to share some of that responsibility?
"HE has a holiday house, a farm with a homestead, a large house with a
swimming pool, two cars, a steam train and all that owning three separate
households entail. He's very open, but for some reason refuses to confirm
just how many aircraft he owns; there are at least two helicopters and a
jet."
Warmest Regards
B0nz0
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of
perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics "A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made global warming." "The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips "Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result" "The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips "Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try at condemning fossil fuels!" http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives. Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher "The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible." Bertrand Russell # The same claim has been made of Al Gore, and can be made of anyone who becomes aware of the possibility that we humans are a cause, not mere victim. With 6.5 billion humans infesting finite planet Earth, we must be making some kind of impact, especially as most people aspire to a Western life-style, rather than hand-to-mouth existence - let alone a Dick Smith extravaganza. To Dick Smith, quality of life is as important, or more so, than quantity, and he also hopes to have capitalism without its constant emphasis on "growth". DS even has his own population website. See - http://www.dicksmithpopulation.com.au The point is - If the human species wishes to survive more than the next few decades it must change its ways, numbers, and beliefs. Human population is expected to increase to nine billion by year 2050 AD - if a "crash" does not occur before then. Besides limiting population, we must recycle everything. Any human product not recycled accumulates as "waste", and we'll "drown" in our own garbage: air-sea-land pollution. We could "have our cake and eat it" if we recycle. Australia is currently "living off the minerals' back" (used to be sheep's), but the faster we extract, the sooner we are left with only a hole in the ground. Frugality (economy) seems indicated - unless all is recycled. The reverence people gave to "God" should be transferred to "Nature", or at least the recognition that we depend on Nature, but it does not depend on us. The vast majority of biological species which have ever existed are extinct. There is nothing so unique about the species Homo Sapiens that it won't, sooner or later, join the vast majority. On present trends, it is likely to be sooner. Global warming is a direct result of air pollution, PROVE IT! The only "proof" lies in pre-ordained climate models. The professor summed it up nicely ... "It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
Post by DonH
and, just as we no longer allow raw sewage to be discharged into the
oceans, we should prohibit raw chimney smoke shitting into the atmosphere.
AGREED.
Real pollution should be prevented from entering the atmosphere, but CO2 is
not pollution!

Warmest Regards

B0nz0

"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics "A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made global warming." "The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips "Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result" "The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips "Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try at condemning fossil fuels!" http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives. Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher "The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible." Bertrand Russell Peter Webb 2010-11-17 01:44:51 UTC Permalink Post by bo nz o Post by DonH and, just as we no longer allow raw sewage to be discharged into the oceans, we should prohibit raw chimney smoke shitting into the atmosphere. AGREED. Real pollution should be prevented from entering the atmosphere, but CO2 is not pollution! Interestingly, AGW believers sometimes blame the cooling in the 1970s on the increase in particulate matter in the atmosphere resulting from incomplete combustion. This is considered to offset some of the CO2. We may be better off *not* cleaning this stuff up anymore, at least for coal fired stations well away from population centres. Surfer 2010-11-17 16:09:14 UTC Permalink Post by bo nz o Post by DonH Global warming is a direct result of air pollution, PROVE IT! Basic physics predicts that CO2 in the atmosphere obstructs radiation of certain wavelengths of infrared heat from the earths surface. It then logically follows that increasing the concentration of CO2 will increase this effect. That provides a logical proof. Of course we need to know the size of the effect and how climate will change as a result. Long term predictions are difficult, but the following graphs show current trends. - Global mean troposphere temperature has an upward trend line Loading Image... - Arctic sea ice extent has a downward trend line Loading Image... - Antarctic mass has a downward trend line http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/20100108_Is_Antarctica_Melting.html - Global sea level is rising Loading Image... Loading Image... Note that an increase in solar radiation would cause warming of both the lower and upper atmosphere. However recent data shows that the upper atmosphere is cooling. http://www.universetoday.com/47851/earths-upper-atmosphere-is-cooling So the above changes are not due to increased solar radiation. Claudius Denk 2010-11-17 19:33:15 UTC Permalink Post by Surfer Post by bo nz o Global warming is a direct result of air pollution, PROVE IT! Basic physics predicts that CO2 in the atmosphere obstructs radiation of certain wavelengths of infrared heat from the earths surface. Actually basic physics shows that CO2 will not have much of any radiative effect at all. And if it has any effect on the temperature of the atmosphere it is due to a miniscule amount of additional cooling in the upper atmosphere. Post by Surfer It then logically follows that increasing the concentration of CO2 will increase this effect. That provides a logical proof. Of course we need to know the size of the effect and how climate will change as a result. Long term predictions are difficult, but the following graphs show current trends. - Global mean troposphere temperature has an upward trend lineLoading Image... You must have a really good imagination to see anything significant in this graph. I don't see it, but then maybe my imaginative abilities are not as well developed as are yours. Post by Surfer - Arctic sea ice extent has a downward trend linehttp://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/n_plot_hires.png - Antarctic mass has a downward trend linehttp://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/20100108_Is_Antarctica_Melt... - Global sea level is risingLoading Image... Note that an increase in solar radiation would cause warming of both the lower and upper atmosphere. However recent data shows that the upper atmosphere is cooling.http://www.universetoday.com/47851/earths-upper-atmosphere-is-cooling So the above changes are not due to increased solar radiation. k***@kymhorsell.com 2010-11-17 20:35:42 UTC Permalink In sci.skeptic Claudius Denk <***@sbcglobal.net> wrote: [...] Post by Claudius Denk Post by Surfer - Global mean troposphere temperature has an upward trend linehttp://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/0710_graf.jpg?w=5... You must have a really good imagination to see anything significant in this graph. I don't see it, but then maybe my imaginative abilities are not as well developed as are yours. [...] Mostly blue on the left, mostly red on the right? But, sure, judging things by eye is for people without numerical skills. So let's do some time series analysis. Here's the LOTI data for 1880-2010. For each month since Jun 1880 the land+sea average global temperature is compared with the average temps for the baseline period 1951-1980. If you plot this out (judging things by eye again?) you can see ups and downs as in the .jpg above -- and as in most of this type of data. But a dispassionate time-series adjusted regression can spot a trend if there is one. We'll set the regression to throw out any points that are too far (2 sigma) in either direction from the estimated line. We'll adjust the confidence interval calculations to take into account any auto-correlation (i.e. tendency for temps to stay high year-on-year or stay low year-on-year). We'll perform 2 methods to detect a trend. (a) TS estimate of slope of trend line; (b) much more robust non-parametric test involving comparing how often temp shows persistent increase year-on-year or persistent decrease year-on-year. Here's the data for any that want to check (the Puppeteer points his eyes at each other at this point). <http://data.giss.nasa.gov/work/modelEt/time_series/work/tmp.4_observLOTI_12_1880_2020_1951_1980-0/LTglb.txt> #annual global mean anomalies vs 1951-1980 #year (12 month running mean) #year Global_Mean LOTI 1880.500000 -0.2870392203 LOTI 1880.583374 -0.2645724416 LOTI 1880.666626 -0.2594057918 LOTI 1880.750000 -0.2419331670 LOTI 1880.833374 -0.2229541987 LOTI 1880.916626 -0.2074880898 LOTI 1881.000000 -0.2043048292 LOTI 1881.083374 -0.1964165121 LOTI 1881.166626 -0.1936120242 LOTI 1881.250000 -0.1932898313 LOTI 1881.333374 -0.1950195283 LOTI 1881.416626 -0.2056796253 LOTI 1881.500000 -0.2045075744 LOTI 1881.583374 -0.2042157501 LOTI 1881.666626 -0.1837380528 LOTI 1881.750000 -0.1888128072 LOTI 1881.833374 -0.2099880725 LOTI 1881.916626 -0.2213578075 LOTI 1882.000000 -0.2220467031 LOTI 1882.083374 -0.2356183976 LOTI 1882.166626 -0.2390995473 LOTI 1882.250000 -0.2357863933 LOTI 1882.333374 -0.2439881116 LOTI 1882.416626 -0.2459754199 LOTI 1882.500000 -0.2695665359 LOTI 1882.583374 -0.2920927703 LOTI 1882.666626 -0.3194094896 LOTI 1882.750000 -0.3170636892 LOTI 1882.833374 -0.3069239855 LOTI 1882.916626 -0.3056268096 LOTI 1883.000000 -0.2877355516 LOTI 1883.083374 -0.2703407705 LOTI 1883.166626 -0.2773847878 LOTI 1883.250000 -0.2839022875 LOTI 1883.333374 -0.2806184590 LOTI 1883.416626 -0.2750584781 LOTI 1883.500000 -0.2534487844 LOTI 1883.583374 -0.2424502820 LOTI 1883.666626 -0.2275167108 LOTI 1883.750000 -0.2503300905 LOTI 1883.833374 -0.2686351538 LOTI 1883.916626 -0.2824572623 LOTI 1884.000000 -0.3008826971 LOTI 1884.083374 -0.3164333701 LOTI 1884.166626 -0.3137388825 LOTI 1884.250000 -0.3140973747 LOTI 1884.333374 -0.3127537072 LOTI 1884.416626 -0.3158432543 LOTI 1884.500000 -0.3215940297 LOTI 1884.583374 -0.3465836644 LOTI 1884.666626 -0.3558251858 LOTI 1884.750000 -0.3431555927 LOTI 1884.833374 -0.3428834081 LOTI 1884.916626 -0.3390768468 LOTI 1885.000000 -0.3462871611 LOTI 1885.083374 -0.3464398980 LOTI 1885.166626 -0.3501314819 LOTI 1885.250000 -0.3442657590 LOTI 1885.333374 -0.3411328495 LOTI 1885.416626 -0.3341733217 LOTI 1885.500000 -0.3137557805 LOTI 1885.583374 -0.3004218340 LOTI 1885.666626 -0.3119675815 LOTI 1885.750000 -0.3225693107 LOTI 1885.833374 -0.3075792193 LOTI 1885.916626 -0.2961017787 LOTI 1886.000000 -0.2881151736 LOTI 1886.083374 -0.2701530755 LOTI 1886.166626 -0.2660839558 LOTI 1886.250000 -0.2623470724 LOTI 1886.333374 -0.2681814730 LOTI 1886.416626 -0.2732165754 LOTI 1886.500000 -0.2914069891 LOTI 1886.583374 -0.3107959032 LOTI 1886.666626 -0.3193999827 LOTI 1886.750000 -0.3235819042 LOTI 1886.833374 -0.3423824310 LOTI 1886.916626 -0.3495471179 LOTI 1887.000000 -0.3391516805 LOTI 1887.083374 -0.3417507410 LOTI 1887.166626 -0.3477037251 LOTI 1887.250000 -0.3505294025 LOTI 1887.333374 -0.3551076949 LOTI 1887.416626 -0.3578089476 LOTI 1887.500000 -0.3665013015 LOTI 1887.583374 -0.3451480567 LOTI 1887.666626 -0.3399815559 LOTI 1887.750000 -0.3464401662 LOTI 1887.833374 -0.3381546736 LOTI 1887.916626 -0.3359285295 LOTI 1888.000000 -0.3369951248 LOTI 1888.083374 -0.3422552049 LOTI 1888.166626 -0.3357232809 LOTI 1888.250000 -0.3307074904 LOTI 1888.333374 -0.3052336872 LOTI 1888.416626 -0.2776562572 LOTI 1888.500000 -0.2609550357 LOTI 1888.583374 -0.2456672639 LOTI 1888.666626 -0.1956738234 LOTI 1888.750000 -0.1590766311 LOTI 1888.833374 -0.1303786635 LOTI 1888.916626 -0.1110890582 LOTI 1889.000000 -0.1015466750 LOTI 1889.083374 -0.1013996750 LOTI 1889.166626 -0.1042585969 LOTI 1889.250000 -0.1044155136 LOTI 1889.333374 -0.1202525869 LOTI 1889.416626 -0.1492130458 LOTI 1889.500000 -0.1587348580 LOTI 1889.583374 -0.1814049482 LOTI 1889.666626 -0.2266232371 LOTI 1889.750000 -0.2541835904 LOTI 1889.833374 -0.2839559913 LOTI 1889.916626 -0.3215562403 LOTI 1890.000000 -0.3429694474 LOTI 1890.083374 -0.3543447852 LOTI 1890.166626 -0.3646324575 LOTI 1890.250000 -0.3801426888 LOTI 1890.333374 -0.3743545115 LOTI 1890.416626 -0.3875130415 LOTI 1890.500000 -0.3844815493 LOTI 1890.583374 -0.3831771612 LOTI 1890.666626 -0.3934957385 LOTI 1890.750000 -0.3774314523 LOTI 1890.833374 -0.3733400404 LOTI 1890.916626 -0.3480086923 LOTI 1891.000000 -0.3347075582 LOTI 1891.083374 -0.3298490047 LOTI 1891.166626 -0.3159192204 LOTI 1891.250000 -0.3008930683 LOTI 1891.333374 -0.3037165999 LOTI 1891.416626 -0.2906368971 LOTI 1891.500000 -0.2741328776 LOTI 1891.583374 -0.2661935091 LOTI 1891.666626 -0.2308675498 LOTI 1891.750000 -0.2455904782 LOTI 1891.833374 -0.2566130459 LOTI 1891.916626 -0.2674593031 LOTI 1892.000000 -0.2668704689 LOTI 1892.083374 -0.2727688849 LOTI 1892.166626 -0.2806944847 LOTI 1892.250000 -0.2825532854 LOTI 1892.333374 -0.2835151851 LOTI 1892.416626 -0.2868277133 LOTI 1892.500000 -0.3130524457 LOTI 1892.583374 -0.3485340774 LOTI 1892.666626 -0.3850739598 LOTI 1892.750000 -0.3734673858 LOTI 1892.833374 -0.3656685650 LOTI 1892.916626 -0.3703260124 LOTI 1893.000000 -0.3757945001 LOTI 1893.083374 -0.3590318263 LOTI 1893.166626 -0.3564615250 LOTI 1893.250000 -0.3594401479 LOTI 1893.333374 -0.3498216569 LOTI 1893.416626 -0.3299094141 LOTI 1893.500000 -0.3218286633 LOTI 1893.583374 -0.2969776392 LOTI 1893.666626 -0.2789469659 LOTI 1893.750000 -0.2818368077 LOTI 1893.833374 -0.2874177396 LOTI 1893.916626 -0.2821471095 LOTI 1894.000000 -0.2936539948 LOTI 1894.083374 -0.2993546724 LOTI 1894.166626 -0.2963675559 LOTI 1894.250000 -0.3040520847 LOTI 1894.333374 -0.3118915260 LOTI 1894.416626 -0.3268879354 LOTI 1894.500000 -0.3210047185 LOTI 1894.583374 -0.3209303021 LOTI 1894.666626 -0.3294200599 LOTI 1894.750000 -0.3334300518 LOTI 1894.833374 -0.3194440007 LOTI 1894.916626 -0.3164763749 LOTI 1895.000000 -0.2987016737 LOTI 1895.083374 -0.2979493737 LOTI 1895.166626 -0.2936100662 LOTI 1895.250000 -0.2734549940 LOTI 1895.333374 -0.2644051611 LOTI 1895.416626 -0.2424491644 LOTI 1895.500000 -0.2332325429 LOTI 1895.583374 -0.2115422040 LOTI 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0.8025334030E-01 LOTI 1977.250000 0.8491047472E-01 LOTI 1977.333374 0.1042238325 LOTI 1977.416626 0.1228154972 LOTI 1977.500000 0.1233856604 LOTI 1977.583374 0.1167819872 LOTI 1977.666626 0.1110686064 LOTI 1977.750000 0.1082860306 LOTI 1977.833374 0.1000535712 LOTI 1977.916626 0.7615280896E-01 LOTI 1978.000000 0.4997435585E-01 LOTI 1978.083374 0.3670478612E-01 LOTI 1978.166626 0.2877963707E-02 LOTI 1978.250000 0.1257716864E-01 LOTI 1978.333374 0.1444656216E-01 LOTI 1978.416626 0.9716024622E-02 LOTI 1978.500000 0.8963978849E-02 LOTI 1978.583374 0.1159643289E-01 LOTI 1978.666626 -0.1064008661E-01 LOTI 1978.750000 -0.1319557056E-01 LOTI 1978.833374 -0.1092230529E-01 LOTI 1978.916626 -0.1737308316E-01 LOTI 1979.000000 -0.7957226597E-02 LOTI 1979.083374 -0.1886338927E-01 LOTI 1979.166626 0.7252123207E-02 LOTI 1979.250000 0.1832838915E-01 LOTI 1979.333374 0.3610729426E-01 LOTI 1979.416626 0.4713620618E-01 LOTI 1979.500000 0.7965178788E-01 LOTI 1979.583374 0.9231708944E-01 LOTI 1979.666626 0.1312572807 LOTI 1979.750000 0.1434353590 LOTI 1979.833374 0.1538882107 LOTI 1979.916626 0.1816040874 LOTI 1980.000000 0.1872386336 LOTI 1980.083374 0.2099902928 LOTI 1980.166626 0.2131827325 LOTI 1980.250000 0.2084832788 LOTI 1980.333374 0.2003290802 LOTI 1980.416626 0.2028950900 LOTI 1980.500000 0.1776382774 LOTI 1980.583374 0.1989288181 LOTI 1980.666626 0.2055569291 LOTI 1980.750000 0.2229590416 LOTI 1980.833374 0.2198132426 LOTI 1980.916626 0.2077841610 LOTI 1981.000000 0.2180130482 LOTI 1981.083374 0.2264684290 LOTI 1981.166626 0.2428468168 LOTI 1981.250000 0.2418460697 LOTI 1981.333374 0.2400325835 LOTI 1981.416626 0.2361830920 LOTI 1981.500000 0.2524560690 LOTI 1981.583374 0.2139854133 LOTI 1981.666626 0.1896125823 LOTI 1981.750000 0.1427494735 LOTI 1981.833374 0.1209220737 LOTI 1981.916626 0.1185858846 LOTI 1982.000000 0.1011333093 LOTI 1982.083374 0.8522836119E-01 LOTI 1982.166626 0.5136790499E-01 LOTI 1982.250000 0.4130084068E-01 LOTI 1982.333374 0.3758502007E-01 LOTI 1982.416626 0.2593553439E-01 LOTI 1982.500000 0.3105161898E-01 LOTI 1982.583374 0.6680715829E-01 LOTI 1982.666626 0.9129967541E-01 LOTI 1982.750000 0.1312027872 LOTI 1982.833374 0.1565872878 LOTI 1982.916626 0.1726669818 LOTI 1983.000000 0.1856130362 LOTI 1983.083374 0.1849528849 LOTI 1983.166626 0.2146228999 LOTI 1983.250000 0.2441462576 LOTI 1983.333374 0.2500295937 LOTI 1983.416626 0.2654679418 LOTI 1983.500000 0.2448764443 LOTI 1983.583374 0.2282681316 LOTI 1983.666626 0.2038612664 LOTI 1983.750000 0.1926856339 LOTI 1983.833374 0.1727348864 LOTI 1983.916626 0.1720674485 LOTI 1984.000000 0.1552034616 LOTI 1984.083374 0.1560987532 LOTI 1984.166626 0.1422475725 LOTI 1984.250000 0.1272868365 LOTI 1984.333374 0.1237288266 LOTI 1984.416626 0.1009664610 LOTI 1984.500000 0.8081131428E-01 LOTI 1984.583374 0.7432753593E-01 LOTI 1984.666626 0.5789804459E-01 LOTI 1984.750000 0.4886931181E-01 LOTI 1984.833374 0.5089252815E-01 LOTI 1984.916626 0.3119116090E-01 LOTI 1985.000000 0.4517030716E-01 LOTI 1985.083374 0.2912696265E-01 LOTI 1985.166626 0.2789834514E-01 LOTI 1985.250000 0.1997708157E-01 LOTI 1985.333374 0.1981696114E-01 LOTI 1985.416626 0.2361140028E-01 LOTI 1985.500000 0.4105424881E-01 LOTI 1985.583374 0.4396579042E-01 LOTI 1985.666626 0.8666206151E-01 LOTI 1985.750000 0.9777326882E-01 LOTI 1985.833374 0.1083720624 LOTI 1985.916626 0.1157362908 LOTI 1986.000000 0.1088133678 LOTI 1986.083374 0.1188916489 LOTI 1986.166626 0.1169508025 LOTI 1986.250000 0.1092932522 LOTI 1986.333374 0.1109153926 LOTI 1986.416626 0.1123770848 LOTI 1986.500000 0.1116338372 LOTI 1986.583374 0.1169261113 LOTI 1986.666626 0.1160556749 LOTI 1986.750000 0.1049768180 LOTI 1986.833374 0.1043100506 LOTI 1986.916626 0.1052943394 LOTI 1987.000000 0.1281556487 LOTI 1987.083374 0.1565010846 LOTI 1987.166626 0.1627596021 LOTI 1987.250000 0.1881242096 LOTI 1987.333374 0.2047357410 LOTI 1987.416626 0.2224024683 LOTI 1987.500000 0.2529812157 LOTI 1987.583374 0.2743060291 LOTI 1987.666626 0.2723793685 LOTI 1987.750000 0.3011986315 LOTI 1987.833374 0.3174484670 LOTI 1987.916626 0.3377057016 LOTI 1988.000000 0.3454954028 LOTI 1988.083374 0.3369879425 LOTI 1988.166626 0.3501421809 LOTI 1988.250000 0.3516040146 LOTI 1988.333374 0.3547008336 LOTI 1988.416626 0.3331824243 LOTI 1988.500000 0.3132133186 LOTI 1988.583374 0.2729306519 LOTI 1988.666626 0.2669186592 LOTI 1988.750000 0.2515150607 LOTI 1988.833374 0.2355929464 LOTI 1988.916626 0.2053841949 LOTI 1989.000000 0.1753492653 LOTI 1989.083374 0.1775886118 LOTI 1989.166626 0.1752706319 LOTI 1989.250000 0.1770771593 LOTI 1989.333374 0.1745172888 LOTI 1989.416626 0.1838326901 LOTI 1989.500000 0.1903011650 LOTI 1989.583374 0.2143387049 LOTI 1989.666626 0.2145870030 LOTI 1989.750000 0.2448618263 LOTI 1989.833374 0.2695392072 LOTI 1989.916626 0.2977766097 LOTI 1990.000000 0.3164575696 LOTI 1990.083374 0.3294752836 LOTI 1990.166626 0.3266237676 LOTI 1990.250000 0.3133763075 LOTI 1990.333374 0.3243089616 LOTI 1990.416626 0.3525629342 LOTI 1990.500000 0.3608520031 LOTI 1990.583374 0.3627331555 LOTI 1990.666626 0.3765206635 LOTI 1990.750000 0.3455623388 LOTI 1990.833374 0.3437495232 LOTI 1990.916626 0.3366911709 LOTI 1991.000000 0.3551688492 LOTI 1991.083374 0.3559580147 LOTI 1991.166626 0.3664554954 LOTI 1991.250000 0.3851848245 LOTI 1991.333374 0.3689832985 LOTI 1991.416626 0.3499609232 LOTI 1991.500000 0.3407565057 LOTI 1991.583374 0.3461928964 LOTI 1991.666626 0.3386285305 LOTI 1991.750000 0.3471009731 LOTI 1991.833374 0.3209779561 LOTI 1991.916626 0.3147789240 LOTI 1992.000000 0.2866186202 LOTI 1992.083374 0.2493029386 LOTI 1992.166626 0.2198476344 LOTI 1992.250000 0.1775769740 LOTI 1992.333374 0.1579799056 LOTI 1992.416626 0.1341411918 LOTI 1992.500000 0.1228938103 LOTI 1992.583374 0.1115640774 LOTI 1992.666626 0.1052559391 LOTI 1992.750000 0.9765782207E-01 LOTI 1992.833374 0.1008385867 LOTI 1992.916626 0.9645009786E-01 LOTI 1993.000000 0.9119609743E-01 LOTI 1993.083374 0.1001715735 LOTI 1993.166626 0.1021867096 LOTI 1993.250000 0.1109918505 LOTI 1993.333374 0.1260982752 LOTI 1993.416626 0.1360778362 LOTI 1993.500000 0.1294421852 LOTI 1993.583374 0.1262063235 LOTI 1993.666626 0.9863281995E-01 LOTI 1993.750000 0.9056295455E-01 LOTI 1993.833374 0.9943892807E-01 LOTI 1993.916626 0.9788015485E-01 LOTI 1994.000000 0.1193978265 LOTI 1994.083374 0.1259056181 LOTI 1994.166626 0.1342336535 LOTI 1994.250000 0.1599320471 LOTI 1994.333374 0.1797832996 LOTI 1994.416626 0.2068990469 LOTI 1994.500000 0.2243378460 LOTI 1994.583374 0.2395030111 LOTI 1994.666626 0.3019977808 LOTI 1994.750000 0.3215580583 LOTI 1994.833374 0.3305810094 LOTI 1994.916626 0.3227631152 LOTI 1995.000000 0.3236185610 LOTI 1995.083374 0.3456968069 LOTI 1995.166626 0.3637524843 LOTI 1995.250000 0.3574964404 LOTI 1995.333374 0.3607162237 LOTI 1995.416626 0.3620173037 LOTI 1995.500000 0.3606880605 LOTI 1995.583374 0.3476216197 LOTI 1995.666626 0.3270380795 LOTI 1995.750000 0.3200929761 LOTI 1995.833374 0.3100895584 LOTI 1995.916626 0.3210239112 LOTI 1996.000000 0.3041326106 LOTI 1996.083374 0.2973635793 LOTI 1996.166626 0.3063247800 LOTI 1996.250000 0.3100617826 LOTI 1996.333374 0.2885059714 LOTI 1996.416626 0.2871877253 LOTI 1996.500000 0.2934322953 LOTI 1996.583374 0.2935825586 LOTI 1996.666626 0.2804166377 LOTI 1996.750000 0.2911760211 LOTI 1996.833374 0.2940318584 LOTI 1996.916626 0.3028585911 LOTI 1997.000000 0.3328912556 LOTI 1997.083374 0.3197345734 LOTI 1997.166626 0.3083647192 LOTI 1997.250000 0.3177514076 LOTI 1997.333374 0.3457960188 LOTI 1997.416626 0.3634203672 LOTI 1997.500000 0.3825819790 LOTI 1997.583374 0.4045383036 LOTI 1997.666626 0.4467202425 LOTI 1997.750000 0.4543276131 LOTI 1997.833374 0.4737372696 LOTI 1997.916626 0.5032517910 LOTI 1998.000000 0.5192593336 LOTI 1998.083374 0.5539480448 LOTI 1998.166626 0.5779045224 LOTI 1998.250000 0.5801445842 LOTI 1998.333374 0.5702176094 LOTI 1998.416626 0.5589799285 LOTI 1998.500000 0.5542870164 LOTI 1998.583374 0.5431619883 LOTI 1998.666626 0.5251235366 LOTI 1998.750000 0.4995376468 LOTI 1998.833374 0.4731709659 LOTI 1998.916626 0.4363355637 LOTI 1999.000000 0.4054751992 LOTI 1999.083374 0.3780059218 LOTI 1999.166626 0.3500004113 LOTI 1999.250000 0.3389944434 LOTI 1999.333374 0.3336953521 LOTI 1999.416626 0.3219966590 LOTI 1999.500000 0.3086466491 LOTI 1999.583374 0.2899633646 LOTI 1999.666626 0.2833445966 LOTI 1999.750000 0.3020571768 LOTI 1999.833374 0.3256017566 LOTI 1999.916626 0.3314893842 LOTI 2000.000000 0.3331597447 LOTI 2000.083374 0.3342891037 LOTI 2000.166626 0.3410858214 LOTI 2000.250000 0.3441580832 LOTI 2000.333374 0.3310964108 LOTI 2000.416626 0.3289524615 LOTI 2000.500000 0.3199721277 LOTI 2000.583374 0.3381243944 LOTI 2000.666626 0.3289325535 LOTI 2000.750000 0.3345920742 LOTI 2000.833374 0.3270110190 LOTI 2000.916626 0.3474135995 LOTI 2001.000000 0.3545602560 LOTI 2001.083374 0.3707930148 LOTI 2001.166626 0.3790234923 LOTI 2001.250000 0.3931757510 LOTI 2001.333374 0.4163171649 LOTI 2001.416626 0.4493446648 LOTI 2001.500000 0.4739433229 LOTI 2001.583374 0.5014572740 LOTI 2001.666626 0.5264521837 LOTI 2001.750000 0.5538262129 LOTI 2001.833374 0.5677855015 LOTI 2001.916626 0.5728142858 LOTI 2002.000000 0.5738685131 LOTI 2002.083374 0.5784193277 LOTI 2002.166626 0.5783999562 LOTI 2002.250000 0.5794250369 LOTI 2002.333374 0.5836792588 LOTI 2002.416626 0.5703246593 LOTI 2002.500000 0.5586030483 LOTI 2002.583374 0.5534768701 LOTI 2002.666626 0.5375267863 LOTI 2002.750000 0.5072289705 LOTI 2002.833374 0.5009176135 LOTI 2002.916626 0.4966633320 LOTI 2003.000000 0.4904974997 LOTI 2003.083374 0.4833981097 LOTI 2003.166626 0.4986106753 LOTI 2003.250000 0.5079582334 LOTI 2003.333374 0.5226535201 LOTI 2003.416626 0.5215522647 LOTI 2003.500000 0.5470480323 LOTI 2003.583374 0.5363866091 LOTI 2003.666626 0.5499585271 LOTI 2003.750000 0.5575102568 LOTI 2003.833374 0.5594354868 LOTI 2003.916626 0.5457716584 LOTI 2004.000000 0.5397373438 LOTI 2004.083374 0.5149759054 LOTI 2004.166626 0.4974953234 LOTI 2004.250000 0.4854559898 LOTI 2004.333374 0.4790748358 LOTI 2004.416626 0.4931302667 LOTI 2004.500000 0.4799817204 LOTI 2004.583374 0.4942241311 LOTI 2004.666626 0.4868121147 LOTI 2004.750000 0.4967460930 LOTI 2004.833374 0.5060160756 LOTI 2004.916626 0.5215128660 LOTI 2005.000000 0.5439230204 LOTI 2005.083374 0.5740800500 LOTI 2005.166626 0.5853979588 LOTI 2005.250000 0.6034425497 LOTI 2005.333374 0.6149129868 LOTI 2005.416626 0.6133242249 LOTI 2005.500000 0.6217342615 LOTI 2005.583374 0.6038072109 LOTI 2005.666626 0.6038013101 LOTI 2005.750000 0.5935218930 LOTI 2005.833374 0.5809197426 LOTI 2005.916626 0.5709815621 LOTI 2006.000000 0.5666434765 LOTI 2006.083374 0.5545851588 LOTI 2006.166626 0.5589477420 LOTI 2006.250000 0.5480116010 LOTI 2006.333374 0.5360572338 LOTI 2006.416626 0.5367087126 LOTI 2006.500000 0.5438236594 LOTI 2006.583374 0.5773862004 LOTI 2006.666626 0.5809700489 LOTI 2006.750000 0.5841441751 LOTI 2006.833374 0.5999441743 LOTI 2006.916626 0.6145035028 LOTI 2007.000000 0.6136848330 LOTI 2007.083374 0.6234223247 LOTI 2007.166626 0.6159473062 LOTI 2007.250000 0.6113790274 LOTI 2007.333374 0.6079616547 LOTI 2007.416626 0.5952960253 LOTI 2007.500000 0.5697643757 LOTI 2007.583374 0.5088769794 LOTI 2007.666626 0.4785093069 LOTI 2007.750000 0.4805369973 LOTI 2007.833374 0.4598188400 LOTI 2007.916626 0.4438244104 LOTI 2008.000000 0.4277707040 LOTI 2008.083374 0.4282906055 LOTI 2008.166626 0.4130594134 LOTI 2008.250000 0.4160292447 LOTI 2008.333374 0.4166229069 LOTI 2008.416626 0.4246318638 LOTI 2008.500000 0.4310206175 LOTI 2008.583374 0.4639549851 LOTI 2008.666626 0.4813087285 LOTI 2008.750000 0.4664338827 LOTI 2008.833374 0.4708602726 LOTI 2008.916626 0.4818562567 LOTI 2009.000000 0.5064594746 LOTI 2009.083374 0.5149075985 LOTI 2009.166626 0.5303887129 LOTI 2009.250000 0.5411190987 LOTI 2009.333374 0.5453741550 LOTI 2009.416626 0.5540969372 LOTI 2009.500000 0.5646377802 LOTI 2009.583374 0.5782875419 LOTI 2009.666626 0.6019529700 LOTI 2009.750000 0.6334959865 LOTI 2009.833374 0.6555088162 LOTI 2009.916626 0.6643188596 LOTI 2010.000000 0.6608605385 LOTI 2010.083374 0.6494707465 LOTI 2010.166626 0.6494237781 LOTI 2010.250000 0.6420695782 Here's the output from the regression: avx 1943.502319 sdx 36.897190 (= 1.898490% of avx) rangex 1880.500000..2009.666626 (= 6.646075% of avx) avy -0.030250 sdy 0.232463 (= -768.462007% of avy) rangey -0.425408..0.601953 (= -3396.186527% of avy) 533 (35.6%) points > 1 \sigma 40 (2.7%) points > 2 \sigma y = 0.00544583*x + -10.6142 sdx 1426.41 rss 20.331 se 0.116577 r 0.864378 limits for beta at 90.0% CI tc = 1.64586 at 1496 d.f. beta in 0.00544583 +- 0.000134513 = [0.00531132, 0.00558034] T-tests on beta: H0 beta == 0.000000 against H1 beta != 0.000000 calculated t = 66.6337 at 1496 d.f. |t| > tc (1.64586 2-sided); reject H0 H0 beta == 0.000000 against H1 beta > 0.000000 t > tc (1.28212 right tail); reject H0 Probabilities: P(beta!=0.000000) = 1.000000 P(beta>0.000000) = 1.000000 limits for alpha at 90.0% CI tc = 1.64586 at 1496 d.f. alpha in -10.6142 +- 0.261473 = [-10.8757, -10.3528] r2 = 0.745411 calculated Spearman corr = 0.870068 Testing: H0: vars are independent |r| > rc (0.432000 2-sided) at 1%; reject H0 Durbin-Watson d = 0.017697 d < dL (1.441109): Positive auto-corr at 5% Here an explanation what that means: In method (a) the model found is anomaly = a + b*year where b is 0.00544583. I.e. for each 100 years there appears to be .5 C increase in anomalous temperature above baseline. The T value for this estimate is 66 at 1400 degrees of freedom. This boils down to saying there is almost no chance (approx 1 in 1000) this increasing trend is due to chance alone. Further, the r2 value indicates that 100-74.5% = 26% of the year-to-year deviations in temperature anomaly are NOT explained by passage of time. There are effects other than a simple increase over time, but together they account for only 1/4 of what appears to be a persistent increase over time. (Some of these other effects are (a) sunspots or other variation in solar output; (b) volcanic eruptions that normally produce approx 5-year periods of slight global cooling). For method (b) (Spearman correlation) the probability the ordering of the temperature anomalies is so similar (i.e. min temp anomaly tend to be at start; max temp anaomaly tend to be at end of period) is around 1 chance in 100. At 99% confidence we can say there is an upward trend in anomalous temperature readings. Having the 2 methods determine the same pattern increases the probability the data shows a real trend, not just a chance effect that may "go away" with more data over coming years. Now, given we have estiblished there is an increasing trend, we could ask -- does the trend stay the same over time? Let's take just the data for the past 20 years and see whether there is still a statistically significant trend. (None of this "by eye" stuff). avx 2000.201172 sdx 5.854342 (= 0.292688% of avx) rangex 1990.000000..2010.250000 (= 1.012398% of avx) avy 0.412967 sdy 0.146199 (= 35.402116% of avy) rangey 0.091196..0.664319 (= 138.781585% of avy) 89 (37.2%) points > 1 \sigma 2 (0.8%) points > 2 \sigma y = 0.0196376*x + -38.8661 sdx 91.189 rss 1.99751 se 0.0918059 r 0.786359 limits for beta at 90.0% CI tc = 1.65132 at 237 d.f. beta in 0.0196376 +- 0.00166249 = [0.0179751, 0.0213001] T-tests on beta: H0 beta == 0.000000 against H1 beta != 0.000000 calculated t = 19.5056 at 237 d.f. |t| > tc (1.65132 2-sided); reject H0 H0 beta == 0.000000 against H1 beta > 0.000000 t > tc (1.28514 right tail); reject H0 Probabilities: P(beta!=0.000000) = 1.000000 P(beta>0.000000) = 1.000000 limits for alpha at 90.0% CI tc = 1.65132 at 237 d.f. alpha in -38.8661 +- 3.32533 = [-42.1914, -35.5408] r2 = 0.627726 calculated Spearman corr = 0.771690 Testing: H0: vars are independent |r| > rc (0.432000 2-sided) at 1%; reject H0 Durbin-Watson d = 0.033817 d < dL (1.665418): Positive auto-corr at 5% Explanation of numbers: Both the (b) Spearman test (at 99% confidence) and (a) LS T-test (at >99% confidence) show an increasing trend. The r2 shows there are more effects in this short period than for the dataset as a whole. Now the effects of other things like volcanic erupts or variations in solar radiation account for approx 100-62.7 = 36% of the variation in year-to-year temp anomaly. I.e. the year-on-year trend still swamps all other effects combined 2:1. And the model estimated by (a) show a trend of almost 2 deg per C of anomalous warming. This same kind of thing can be done to relate (e.g.) a suspected connection between CO2 levels and anomalous warming. Rather than just assume that a trend exists over time we can nail it to a suspected cause, if required. If we can estimate what the variation in anomalous temp vs CO2 concentration, and we can estimate how this concentration is expected to change over time (perhaps not linearly) then we can better estimate any change in anomalous temp. Of course, maybe there *is* no statistically significant link. :) But the analysis has been done, and we sure there is such a link in the data, confirming the hypothesis that increasing CO2 levels is influencing the observed anomalous temp increase. -- R Kym Horsell <***@kymhorsell.com> If your ideas are any good you'll have to ram them down people's throats. -- Howard Aiken o nbz o 2010-11-18 01:33:29 UTC Permalink Post by Surfer Post by bo nz o Post by DonH Global warming is a direct result of air pollution, PROVE IT! Basic physics predicts that CO2 in the atmosphere obstructs radiation of certain wavelengths of infrared heat from the earths surface. Here's what "Basic physics predicts" ... The first 50 ppm of CO2 operates as a powerful greenhouse gas. After that, CO2 has done its job, which is why there has been no runaway greenhouse in the past when CO2 was far higher. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25552775-5013479,00.html Warmest Regards B0nz0 "It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville

"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."

Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics

"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated

Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher

"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."

Bertrand Russell
Surfer
2010-11-19 06:58:59 UTC
Post by o nbz o
Here's what "Basic physics predicts" ...
The first 50 ppm of CO2 operates as a powerful greenhouse gas.
After that, CO2 has done its job, which is why there has been no runaway
greenhouse in the past when CO2 was far higher.
http://www.bbm.me.uk/portsdown/PH_120_Envmnt.htm

<Start extract>

Estimates suggest that at the beginning of the Cretaceous, the Global
Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) was around 20°C (about 5° hotter than
today's value of 15°C), and was about the same at the period's end -
but peaked to a high of 25°C in the Upper Cretaceous.
These high temperatures were due to the much higher level of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere at the time - which has been suggested as
being 4 times as much as is in our air today.

<End extract>

That was a natural greenhouse effect.

Perhaps not a 'runaway', but do we want to get it back again?
b o nz o
2010-11-20 03:13:12 UTC
Post by Surfer
Post by o nbz o
Here's what "Basic physics predicts" ...
The first 50 ppm of CO2 operates as a powerful greenhouse gas.
After that, CO2 has done its job, which is why there has been no runaway
greenhouse in the past when CO2 was far higher.
http://www.bbm.me.uk/portsdown/PH_120_Envmnt.htm
<Start extract>
Estimates suggest that at the beginning of the Cretaceous, the Global
Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) was around 20°C (about 5° hotter than
today's value of 15°C), and was about the same at the period's end -
but peaked to a high of 25°C in the Upper Cretaceous.
These high temperatures were due to the much higher level of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere at the time - which has been suggested as
being 4 times as much as is in our air today.
]

Garbage!
It has been observed that CO2 FOLLOWS temperature fluctuations by about 800
years.

Warmest Regards

B0nz0

"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics "A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made global warming." "The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips "Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result" "The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips "Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try at condemning fossil fuels!" http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives. Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher "The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible." Bertrand Russell Sapient Fridge 2010-11-20 13:27:16 UTC Permalink Post by b o nz o Post by Surfer Post by o nbz o Here's what "Basic physics predicts" ... The first 50 ppm of CO2 operates as a powerful greenhouse gas. After that, CO2 has done its job, which is why there has been no runaway greenhouse in the past when CO2 was far higher. http://www.bbm.me.uk/portsdown/PH_120_Envmnt.htm <Start extract> Estimates suggest that at the beginning of the Cretaceous, the Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) was around 20°C (about 5° hotter than today's value of 15°C), and was about the same at the period's end - but peaked to a high of 25°C in the Upper Cretaceous. These high temperatures were due to the much higher level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at the time - which has been suggested as being 4 times as much as is in our air today. ] Garbage! It has been observed that CO2 FOLLOWS temperature fluctuations by about 800 years. The Earth starts to warm due to solar variations (e.g. the sunspot and Milankovitch cycles) that then releases CO2 stored in natural sinks. That additional CO2 then warms the planet far more than solar forcing on its own would have done. The observed lag is the time between the original solar warming and the CO2 warming taking over: http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm At the moment solar forcing is dropping so the planet should be cooling, it's getting warmer rapidly due to the additional CO2 that we have dumped in the atmosphere. The CO2 sinks such as the frozen permafrost in Siberia will melt releasing even more CO2: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/01/100111102536.htm The thing that the deniers forget is they still have to account for the rising temperatures. We know it's not solar forcing so what is it? http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm Like the creationists fighting evolution without providing positive evidence for their side of the argument, the deniers say that it's not CO2 but fail to propose a viable replacement theory. -- ***@spamsights.org ICQ #17887309 * Save the net * Grok: http://spam.abuse.net http://www.cauce.org * nuke a spammer * Find: http://www.samspade.org http://www.netdemon.net * today * Kill: http://mail-abuse.com http://au.sorbs.net http://spamhaus.org 123bo n z o 2010-11-22 05:27:39 UTC Permalink Post by Sapient Fridge Post by b o nz o Post by Surfer Post by o nbz o Here's what "Basic physics predicts" ... The first 50 ppm of CO2 operates as a powerful greenhouse gas. After that, CO2 has done its job, which is why there has been no runaway greenhouse in the past when CO2 was far higher. http://www.bbm.me.uk/portsdown/PH_120_Envmnt.htm <Start extract> Estimates suggest that at the beginning of the Cretaceous, the Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) was around 20°C (about 5° hotter than today's value of 15°C), and was about the same at the period's end - but peaked to a high of 25°C in the Upper Cretaceous. These high temperatures were due to the much higher level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at the time - which has been suggested as being 4 times as much as is in our air today. ] Garbage! It has been observed that CO2 FOLLOWS temperature fluctuations by about 800 years. The Earth starts to warm due to solar variations (e.g. the sunspot and Milankovitch cycles) that then releases CO2 stored in natural sinks. That additional CO2 then warms the planet far more than solar forcing on its own would have done. The observed lag is the time between the original http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm At the moment solar forcing is dropping so the planet should be cooling, it's getting warmer rapidly due to the additional CO2 that we have dumped in the atmosphere. The CO2 sinks such as the frozen permafrost in http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/01/100111102536.htm The thing that the deniers forget is they still have to account for the rising temperatures. We know it's not solar forcing so what is it? http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm Like the creationists fighting evolution without providing positive evidence for their side of the argument, the deniers say that it's not CO2 but fail to propose a viable replacement theory. The PDO Plus AMO Provide Twice The Correlation Of CO2 To US Temperatures 23 Mar 2009 QUOTE: Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases over land. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was identified in the late 1990s, while the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) was identified in 2000. This figure compares the PDO+AMO with the US average annual temperatures with an r-squared of 0.85 between the two - an extremely good correlation [http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?a=127]. A 2008 study - "Oceanic Influences on Recent Continental Warming", [http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/gilbert.p.compo/CompoSardeshmukh2007a.pdf] states: "Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) over land. Atmospheric model simulations of the last half-century with prescribed observed ocean temperature changes, but without prescribed GHG changes, account for most of the land warming. . Several recent studies suggest that the observed SST variability may be misrepresented in the coupled models used in preparing the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, with substantial errors on interannual and decadal scales." The PDO also correlates with the solar Hale cycle. See also: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/PDO_AMO.htm http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/GW_SimplifiedNutshell.htm Warmest Regards B0nz0 "It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville

"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."

Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics

"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated

Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher

"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."

Bertrand Russell
k***@kymhorsell.com
2010-11-24 15:53:31 UTC
In sci.skeptic 123bo n z o <***@huu.com> wrote:
[...]
Post by @B_ON#Z*O
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville [... numerous other quotes ... ] Post by @B_O`N#Z*O You do realise that what you have described is "an appeal to authority" - [...] and not the scientific method. [seems to apply selectively] -- Peter Webb <***@diespamdieoptusnet.com.au>, 23 Nov 2010 -- R Kym Horsell <***@kymhorsell.com> They said it was only luck. But the more I practised, the luckier I got. -- Gary Player [and others] Mr Posting Robot 2011-03-09 03:30:03 UTC Permalink NewsCorp's Environmental Hypocrisy Union of Concerned Scientists March 8, 2011 Washington -- Kevin Knobloch, president of the Union of Concerned Scientists, wrote the following commentary regarding News Corp's hypocritical position on environmental protection and climate change: NewsCorp owner Rupert Murdoch announced last wk that his company reduced its global warming emissions to zero. They did it by reducing some of their emissions and paying others to do so through "carbon offsets." But Murdoch's calculations do not include another form of pollution: the constant stream of misinformation NewsCorp subsidiary Fox News routinely broadcasts about climate science to millions of viewers. It may come as a surprise, but NewsCorp has an official policy to "engage our audiences and enable them to find ways to reduce carbon emissions in their own l ives." Carbon neutral or not, NewsCorp is failing badly at that mission. Take a typical episode of Sean Hannity's program. During one show in 2009, Hannity erroneously claimed the y had been the "ninth coldest" on record. In fact, according to NASA, 2009 was the second warmest y globally on average since reliable measurements began in the 1880s. Hannity also has called global warming "a huge cover up." Similarly, his colleag ue, Glenn Beck, has accused climate scientists of "fudging" numbers and "lying." Hannity's and Beck's statements are flat-out fabrications. The major conclusions of climate science have been vetted as thoroughly - if not more so -- than any other modern scientific field. That's why the US National Academy of Sciences and its counterpart institutions in other nations wrote in 2009 that "the need for urgent action to address climate change is now indisputable." Fox News' failure to accurately communicate the truth about climate change also extends to its "news" programs. Last Dec, for example, Media Matters released an email from Fox News Washington Managing Editor Bill Sammon in which he urged news staff to highlight criticisms of climate science whenever they mention it. Similarly, "Fox & Friends" anchor Steve Doocy did an interview this winter in which he sarcastically talked about climate change outside Fox's New York City studio following a snow storm. Doocy interviewed an author with a conspiracy theory view of climate science rather than an actual scientist. Then a person wearing a polar bear costume wandered behind Doocy, presumably to add some color to Fox's "news production." It's worth pointing out that there have been some uncharacteristic bright spots in Fox News' climate coverage. In July 2009, for example, Bill O'Reilly forcefully corrected commentator Laura Ingraham when she claimed the Earth is cooling. "That's not what the temperatures say, but okay," O'Reilly said. O'Reilly is no environmentalist. But unlike some of his fellow commentators at Fox, he understands the distinction between climate change science and climate change policies. Confusing the public about the reality of climate change not only undermines attempts to implement policies that would give us a fighting chance to prevent the worst consequences of climate change; it also undermines the nation's ability to adapt to future climate change. The science is clear that climate change is threatens our economy, public health and well-being. No amount of denial will stop rising seas, increasing droughts and extreme precipitation events or more severe wildfires. But Fox News' misinformation seems to work. While scientists have conclusively shown that human activities are driving climate change, 30% of regular Fox News viewers surveyed in a University of Maryland / WorldPublicOpinion.org poll thought that scientists have concluded exactly the opposite. Meanwhile, only 12% of the general public polled in that survey shares that inaccurate view . It's admirable that Rupert Murdoch sees the value of limiting and offsetting his own company's carbon emissions. But that effort is an empty gesture if he fails to take action to stem the efforts of his flagship US news organization to mislead the American public about a critical scientific and policy issue. Imagine what a difference it could make if Fox News chose instead to provide its viewers with accurate information. If "carbon neutrality" is good for NewsCorp, why isn't Fox News pointing out why that's good for the for the rest of us, too? The good news is we still have the opportunity to avoid the worst consequences of climate change. Any responsible debate about climate change should be over how we can most cost-effectively reduce carbon emissions and reap the benefits of switching to cleaner energy sources. Burning less fossil fuel will mean cleaner air, a more resilient economy, and a stronger nation. Because we are already feeling the effects of too much carbon, however, we must also figure out what we should do to adapt to ongoing changes. When Fox News argues about whether or not human activity is driving climate change, it is wasting valuable time. With the help of my organization, more than 35k Americans have sent Murdoch letters asking him to curb Fox News' noise pollution. He has yet to respond. Future generations probably won't remember that Murdoch made NewsCorp carbon neutral. But if Fox News continues to deceive the public about the overwhelming evidence that human activity is causing climate change, future generations will almost certainly know that his company's policy of "distract, deny and delay" helped block action on climate change at a critical moment. The Union of Concerned Scientists is the leading US science-based nonprofit organization working for a healthy environment and a safer world. Founded in 1969, UCS is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and also has offices in Berkeley, Chicago and Washington, D.C. MYREF: 20110309143002 msg2011030911909 [133 more news items] --- [A]s a Conservative, I have no tolerance for ambiguity. -- ***@27-32-240-172 [86 nyms and counting], 14 Jan 2011 14:46 +1100 dudupeed 2011-03-09 03:42:09 UTC Permalink Post by Mr Posting Robot NewsCorp's Environmental Hypocrisy Add one more to the list .... Warmist OOZES Sincerity As She Preaches Earth Hour Abstinence From Her Private Jet This proves how ridiculously easy it is to con one-eyed leftist whackos! March 9 2011 IT must be a rule somewhere that only the most shameless hypocrites are allowed to lead the global warming faith. After all, how do you explain Use Less preacher Al Gore, with his five houses and monster electricity bills? How do you explain Sir Richard Brazen, spruiking global warming while running a massive fleet of gas-blasting jets? How do explain alarmist of the year Tim Flannery, paid by the Gillard Government to sell us a tax to cut emissions, after being hired by Brazen's Virgin Galactic to help sell joyrides into space, so millionaires can emit one great belch of gas for a few minutes of weightlessness? And how do you explain the choice of Miranda Kerr? I was struck on the weekend by this glad report in The Age: Green is, like, so hot right now, thanks to Australian model Miranda Kerr, who has been named Earth Hour's global ambassador. Kerr, a self-styled earth mother who gave birth to her first son, Flynn, in January, and has an organic skin-care range and blog, has pledged to turn off the lights on Saturday, March 26-whether she's at her plush New York pad or her luxurious LA digs. Kerr even put out a statement for Earth Hour, during which thousands of our most eager warmists will cut their lights for an hour-but only an hour-to show they care about global warming, but not quite enough to, like, cut their lights every day or something. Said Kerr: "Each of us has a responsibility for the sustainability of our planet and each of us can make a difference if we choose to do so." Not that Kerr herself chooses to make that much difference, of course. This, after all, is the woman who reportedly last "arrived in Australia via private plane" and who regularly jets around the world being a supermodel, trailing the obligatory contrails. Indeed, she even helps to endorse airplane travel, posing in front of the Virgin jet that Sir Richard had renamed "Airline of the Angels" to fly her and a few other models around to flog Victoria's Secret bras. Kerr's personal tastes seem to attract her not only to this lifestyle of carbon villainy but (reportedly) to jetting off to the parties of those engaging in the real stuff, too. A few days ago, US diplomatic cables unearthed by WikiLeaks revealed that Beyonce was paid a seven-figure sum to gyrate at a party in the Caribbean thrown by one of the sons of Libya's mad Colonel Muammar Gaddafi-and newspapers claimed Kerr was among the audience. A question to the World Wildlife Fund: If we all emitted as Kerr emits, and not as she preaches, would our total emissions soar or fall? In light of your answer, were you fools or frauds to make her your Earth Hour ambassador? And a question to the Fairfax newspapers -- The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald-who so lightly fill their pages with fluff about Kerr making Earth Hour "hot", and how Australia's Earth Hour this year "is expected to be one of the biggest". Does the fact that Fairfax sponsors Earth Hour explain why you now run propaganda about it? In truth, Earth Hour here has lately lost support, with some two-thirds of businesses dropping out in Melbourne last year. Now making a hypocrite like Kerr the new face of this stunt simply seals the deal. We're just being conned. http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/column_an_earth_hour_lecture_delivered_from_the_pointy_end_of_a_jet/ Warmest Regards B0nz0 "It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville

"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"

Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,

"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."

Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics

"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated

Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher

"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."

Bertrand Russell

123bo n z o
2010-11-22 05:32:27 UTC
<snip>
Thank you - couldn't have said it better myself. But mentioning correct
scientific method to these AGWers is like throwing a pork chop into a
mosque.
1) Make observations and gather data
2) Create a hypothesis which explains the data and makes predictions
3) Try to prove the hypothesis wrong by testing those predictions
4) If no counterexamples can be found then it becomes a theory
So, having got the definition out of the way, where are the observations
the don't fit into the current climate theories regarding global warming
from CO2 pollution?
In what way do you think that this climate science doesn't follow the
scientific method?
There are *lots* of invalid claims which have been refuted one by one,
http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php
The Difference Between True Science And Cargo-Cult "Science"

According the Faculty Senate of the University of Virginia, "science," and
indeed "scholarship" in general, is no longer an attempt to establish truth
by replicable experiment, or by looking at evidence that can be checked by
anyone.

"Truth" is now to be established by the decree of powerful authority, by
"peer review".

Wasn't the whole point of the Enlightenment to avoid exactly this?....

Appeal to authority establishes nothing.

28 Jul 2010

QUOTE: Compare Feynman's scientific integrity with the continual attempts by
the leaders of climate "science" to prevent skeptics from checking their
data.

True scientists would be extremely pleased to provide all raw data, and they
would make the data available to all on the Internet. A state attorney
general would not have to file suit to make them disgorge.

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts" is how the great Nobel
Prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman defined science in his article "What
is Science?" Feynman emphasized this definition by repeating it in a
stand-alone sentence in extra large typeface in his article. (Feynman's
essay is available online, but behind a subscription wall: The Physics
Teacher (1969) volume 7, starting page 313.)

Immediately after his definition of science, Feynman wrote: "When someone
says, 'Science teaches such and such,' he is using the word incorrectly.
Science doesn't teach anything; experience teaches it. If they say to you,
'Science has shown such and such,' you should ask, 'How does science show
it? How did the scientists find out? How? What? Where?' It should not be
'science has shown.' And you have as much right as anyone else, upon hearing
about the experiments (but be patient and listen to all the evidence) to
judge whether a sensible conclusion has been arrived at."

And I say, Amen.

Notice that "you" is the average person.

You have the right to hear the evidence, and you have the right to judge
whether the evidence supports the conclusion. We now use the phrase
"scientific consensus," or "peer review," rather than "science has shown."
By whatever name, the idea is balderdash. Feynman was absolutely correct.

When the attorney general of Virginia sued to force Michael Mann of "hockey
stick" fame to provide the raw data he used, and the complete computer
program used to analyze the data, so that "you" could decide, the Faculty
Senate of the University of Virginia (where Mann was a professor at the time
he defended the hockey stick) declared this request - Feynman's request - to
be an outrage.

You peons, the Faculty Senate decreed, must simply accept the conclusions of
any "scientific endeavor that has satisfied peer review standards."

Feynman's - and the attorney general's and my own and other scientists' -
request for the raw data, so we can "judge whether a sensible conclusion has
been arrived at," would, according to the Faculty Senate, "send a chilling
message to scientists . and indeed scholars in any discipline."

According the Faculty Senate of the University of Virginia, "science," and
indeed "scholarship" in general, is no longer an attempt to establish truth
by replicable experiment, or by looking at evidence that can be checked by
anyone. "Truth" is now to be established by the decree of powerful
authority, by "peer review."

Wasn't the whole point of the Enlightenment to avoid exactly this?

Appeal to authority establishes nothing.

"Experts" who claim otherwise are thereby showing themselves to be
non-experts. The University of Virginia faculty members who supported this
anti-science resolution have shown themselves to be unworthy to teach at an
American university. They have shown themselves to have no understanding of
the meaning of the word "scholarship."

There are all too many such professors at the leading American universities.
Which is why Feynman defined science to be a belief in the ignorance of such
people. They are ignorant. Feynman used the expression "cargo-cult science"
to describe the "science" done by such people.

In the South Pacific during the Second World War, the locals noticed that
cargo planes would fly into airports that had been established on their
islands, and unload vast amounts of goodies. The natives wanted the wealth
too, so they hacked runways out of the jungle, made "radar antennas" out of
wood, and sat at "radio sets" they had also fashioned out of wood. To their
eyes, it looked like the real thing, but alas, no planes arrived with cargo.
The native "cargo-cult" airport had the superficial appearance of an
airport, but not the reality.

Many areas of "science" today have the superficial appearance of true
science, but not the reality. Climate "science" is an example.

How does one distinguish between science and pseudoscience, between true
science and cargo-cult science?

Many believe that Karl Popper's falsifiability criterion provides it, but
Popper's criterion has numerous difficulties, which philosophers have
pointed out. Feynman has provided a much better way to test for true science
in his essay "Cargo-Cult Science":

. there is one feature I notice that is generally missing in cargo cult
science. . It's a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific
thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty - a kind of leaning over
backwards. For example, if you're doing an experiment, you should report
everything that you think might make it invalid - not only what you think is
right about it: other causes that could possibly explain your results; and
things you thought of that you've eliminated by some other experiment, and
how they worked - to make sure the other fellow can tell they have been
eliminated.

Compare Feynman's scientific integrity with the continual attempts by the
leaders of climate "science" to prevent skeptics from checking their data.

True scientists would be extremely pleased to provide all raw data, and they
would make the data available to all on the Internet. A state attorney
general would not have to file suit to make them disgorge.

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-difference-between-true-science-and-cargo-cult-science/?singlepage=true

Warmest Regards

B0nz0

"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics "A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made global warming." "The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips "Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result" "The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips "Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try at condemning fossil fuels!" http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives. Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher "The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible." Bertrand Russell Oy rool out a carbon tax 2010-11-22 07:01:39 UTC Permalink Post by 123bo n z o <snip> Thank you - couldn't have said it better myself. But mentioning correct scientific method to these AGWers is like throwing a pork chop into a mosque. 1) Make observations and gather data 2) Create a hypothesis which explains the data and makes predictions 3) Try to prove the hypothesis wrong by testing those predictions 4) If no counterexamples can be found then it becomes a theory So, having got the definition out of the way, where are the observations the don't fit into the current climate theories regarding global warming from CO2 pollution? In what way do you think that this climate science doesn't follow the scientific method? There are *lots* of invalid claims which have been refuted one by one, http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php The Difference Between True Science And Cargo-Cult "Science" According the Faculty Senate of the University of Virginia, "science," and indeed "scholarship" in general, is no longer an attempt to establish truth by replicable experiment, or by looking at evidence that can be checked by anyone. "Truth" is now to be established by the decree of powerful authority, by "peer review". And as we know, the term "peer" should be most accurately replaced by "mates" in the context of the AGW cult cabal. Post by 123bo n z o Wasn't the whole point of the Enlightenment to avoid exactly this?.... Appeal to authority establishes nothing. 28 Jul 2010 QUOTE: Compare Feynman's scientific integrity with the continual attempts by the leaders of climate "science" to prevent skeptics from checking their data. True scientists would be extremely pleased to provide all raw data, and they would make the data available to all on the Internet. A state attorney general would not have to file suit to make them disgorge. "Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts" is how the great Nobel Prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman defined science in his article "What is Science?" Feynman emphasized this definition by repeating it in a stand-alone sentence in extra large typeface in his article. (Feynman's essay is available online, but behind a subscription wall: The Physics Teacher (1969) volume 7, starting page 313.) Immediately after his definition of science, Feynman wrote: "When someone says, 'Science teaches such and such,' he is using the word incorrectly. Science doesn't teach anything; experience teaches it. If they say to you, 'Science has shown such and such,' you should ask, 'How does science show it? How did the scientists find out? How? What? Where?' It should not be 'science has shown.' And you have as much right as anyone else, upon hearing about the experiments (but be patient and listen to all the evidence) to judge whether a sensible conclusion has been arrived at." And I say, Amen. Notice that "you" is the average person. You have the right to hear the evidence, and you have the right to judge whether the evidence supports the conclusion. We now use the phrase "scientific consensus," or "peer review," rather than "science has shown." By whatever name, the idea is balderdash. Feynman was absolutely correct. When the attorney general of Virginia sued to force Michael Mann of "hockey stick" fame to provide the raw data he used, and the complete computer program used to analyze the data, so that "you" could decide, the Faculty Senate of the University of Virginia (where Mann was a professor at the time he defended the hockey stick) declared this request - Feynman's request - to be an outrage. You peons, the Faculty Senate decreed, must simply accept the conclusions of any "scientific endeavor that has satisfied peer review standards." Feynman's - and the attorney general's and my own and other scientists' - request for the raw data, so we can "judge whether a sensible conclusion has been arrived at," would, according to the Faculty Senate, "send a chilling message to scientists . and indeed scholars in any discipline." According the Faculty Senate of the University of Virginia, "science," and indeed "scholarship" in general, is no longer an attempt to establish truth by replicable experiment, or by looking at evidence that can be checked by anyone. "Truth" is now to be established by the decree of powerful authority, by "peer review." Wasn't the whole point of the Enlightenment to avoid exactly this? Appeal to authority establishes nothing. "Experts" who claim otherwise are thereby showing themselves to be non-experts. The University of Virginia faculty members who supported this anti-science resolution have shown themselves to be unworthy to teach at an American university. They have shown themselves to have no understanding of the meaning of the word "scholarship." There are all too many such professors at the leading American universities. Which is why Feynman defined science to be a belief in the ignorance of such people. They are ignorant. Feynman used the expression "cargo-cult science" to describe the "science" done by such people. In the South Pacific during the Second World War, the locals noticed that cargo planes would fly into airports that had been established on their islands, and unload vast amounts of goodies. The natives wanted the wealth too, so they hacked runways out of the jungle, made "radar antennas" out of wood, and sat at "radio sets" they had also fashioned out of wood. To their eyes, it looked like the real thing, but alas, no planes arrived with cargo. The native "cargo-cult" airport had the superficial appearance of an airport, but not the reality. Many areas of "science" today have the superficial appearance of true science, but not the reality. Climate "science" is an example. How does one distinguish between science and pseudoscience, between true science and cargo-cult science? Many believe that Karl Popper's falsifiability criterion provides it, but Popper's criterion has numerous difficulties, which philosophers have pointed out. Feynman has provided a much better way to test for true science . there is one feature I notice that is generally missing in cargo cult science. . It's a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty - a kind of leaning over backwards. For example, if you're doing an experiment, you should report everything that you think might make it invalid - not only what you think is right about it: other causes that could possibly explain your results; and things you thought of that you've eliminated by some other experiment, and how they worked - to make sure the other fellow can tell they have been eliminated. Compare Feynman's scientific integrity with the continual attempts by the leaders of climate "science" to prevent skeptics from checking their data. True scientists would be extremely pleased to provide all raw data, and they would make the data available to all on the Internet. A state attorney general would not have to file suit to make them disgorge. http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-difference-between-true-science-and-cargo-cult-science/?singlepage=true Warmest Regards B0nz0 "It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."
Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics
"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated
Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher
"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."
Bertrand Russell
--
Labor-Green open borders plan in action...

Number of illegal aliens in detention (nearest hundred):

Jan 2005 __________ 1000
Jul 2005 ________ 800
Jan 2006 _________ 900
Jul 2006 ______ 600
Jan 2007 _____ 500
Jul 2007 ____ 400
Jan 2008 ____ 400
Jul 2008 ___ 300
Jan 2009 ___ 300 -> Rudd stops TPVs
Jul 2009 __________ 1000
Jan 2010 _________________ 1700
Jul 2010 ______________________________ 2000

Boat watch alert: 4 boats arrive in last 2 days - 7/11/2010
- more than 6000 people arrive in 2010 and 121 boats
- 35 boats arrive since the 21/8/2010 election - more than 1700 people
Sapient Fridge
2010-11-22 22:01:53 UTC
In message <4cea006a$***@dnews.tpgi.com.au>, 123bo n z o <***@huu.com> writes Post by 123bo n z o <snip> Thank you - couldn't have said it better myself. But mentioning correct scientific method to these AGWers is like throwing a pork chop into a mosque. 1) Make observations and gather data 2) Create a hypothesis which explains the data and makes predictions 3) Try to prove the hypothesis wrong by testing those predictions 4) If no counterexamples can be found then it becomes a theory So, having got the definition out of the way, where are the observations the don't fit into the current climate theories regarding global warming from CO2 pollution? In what way do you think that this climate science doesn't follow the scientific method? There are *lots* of invalid claims which have been refuted one by one, http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php The Difference Between True Science And Cargo-Cult "Science" You forgot to provide any evidence that the theory of AGW was incorrect or that any of the information on the web site I referenced was wrong. Want to try again? <snip - cut and paste rant with nothing to do with the subject in hand> -- ***@spamsights.org ICQ #17887309 * Save the net * Grok: http://spam.abuse.net http://www.cauce.org * nuke a spammer * Find: http://www.samspade.org http://www.netdemon.net * today * Kill: http://mail-abuse.com http://au.sorbs.net http://spamhaus.org Sapient Fridge 2010-11-22 22:02:34 UTC Permalink In message <***@dnews.tpgi.com.au>, 123bo n z o <***@huu.com> writes <snip> Actually it has. There is ample evidence that CO2 is warming the planet. We know the mechanism, it matches the predications and it explains the observations. In fact it is the only explanation we have remaining which explains why the planet temperature is rising, the others have been ruled out because they don't match the observations. Huh? CO2 vs Temperature Correlation Just 0.07 18 Jul 2009 The graph below demonstrates virtually NO CORRELATION between CO2 and temperature. R-squared correlation strength of just 0.07. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/17/ipcc-lead-author-on-global-warming -conclusions-were-not-scientifically-there-yet/ Nice cherry picking of the data so it only goes from 1997 onwards. http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm Try looking at the longer term picture. Loading Image... http://www.skepticalscience.com/The-CO2-Temperature-correlation-over-the-20th-Century.html <snip> -- ***@spamsights.org ICQ #17887309 * Save the net * Grok: http://spam.abuse.net http://www.cauce.org * nuke a spammer * Find: http://www.samspade.org http://www.netdemon.net * today * Kill: http://mail-abuse.com http://au.sorbs.net http://spamhaus.org k***@kymhorsell.com 2010-11-23 00:28:38 UTC Permalink In sci.skeptic Sapient Fridge <***@spamsights.org> wrote: ... Post by Sapient Fridge The graph below demonstrates virtually NO CORRELATION between CO2 and temperature. R-squared correlation strength of just 0.07. ... Post by Sapient Fridge Nice cherry picking of the data so it only goes from 1997 onwards. ... I've seen "work" like this since the 90s. Usually they don't have the wherewithall to do an r2 on it. :) Othert tricks I've seen used to make sure r2 is small is (a) don't remove outliers -- sometimes just having 1 big outlier can put so much noise into the statistics it will make r2 < .1 all by itself. (b) don't handle missing values in small datasets -- just throw them out. this also can introduce transition noise that will kill and r2. Of course the idea an r2 usually doesn't come with a confidence interval and therefore is't by itself any kind of statistic is beyond the honest bunglers. The others type probably know. :) -- R Kym Horsell <***@kymhorsell.com>$>This seems to be saying "in logic or philosphy an inverted if or circular
$>argument are no good -- but in science we have different standards".$You're right. That's exactly what I'm saying.
-- Mike Franklin <***@msn.com>, 20 Nov 2010
Sapient Fridge
2010-11-22 22:03:32 UTC
In message <***@dnews.tpgi.com.au>, 123bo n z o <***@huu.com>
writes
<snip>
The difference between science and religion is that science is
testable, religion isn't. There are little things called "evidence"
and "observations" that back up the science showing that global
warming is happening.
Gee, you seemed to have conflated two completely different ideas - the
belief that climate is changing, and the belief that anthropogenic CO2
is to blame.
Did you genuinely not know they were different questions? Or were you
trying to be deceitful by pretending they were, even though you know
they are not the same thing?
The climate is warming, that is an observation i.e. it is a fact.
Huh?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record

"Each of the last 13 years (1997–2009) was one of the 14 warmest on
record."

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2010/jan/HQ_10-017_Warmest_temps.html

http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm

<snip>
--
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123bo n z o
2010-11-23 03:37:11 UTC
The climate is warming, that is an observation i.e. it is a fact.
0.6 degrees in a century. Please provide a representative sample of
centuries.
What would that show? Humans have never dumped this amount of CO2 in the
atmosphere before so previous centuries temperatures are not terribly
useful in predicting what is ahead.
About 220 gigatons of CO2 enters the atmosphere each year from natural
sources and about 220 gigatons leaves the atmosphere. It's in
equilibrium. The problem is that humans are adding about 26 gigatons per
year and that has nowhere to go, so it builds up.
http://www.research.noaa.gov/spotlite/archive/spot_jimomedal.html
Think of it this way, if you have an income of $100,000 and spend$100,000
a year then you are fine. If you spend $105,000 a year then eventually you will become bankrupt even though the additional amount is a small proportion of your income. Actually even if you don't think that AGW is happening it's worth supporting moves off fossil fuels anyway, we are past peak oil Oh really? You wish! Peak Oil Postponed July 15 2008 No need to panic about peak oil just yet: In the Americas, proven oil reserves have increased from 170 billion barrels to 180 billion barrels over the last two decades, according to the 2008 Statistical World Review from British Petroleum. In Europe and Eurasia, proven oil reserves almost doubled, from 76 billion barrels to 144. And the Middle East, the gas tank of the world, shows no sign of slowing down-its reserves soared by almost 200 billion barrels, from a whopping 567 billion barrels to a super-whopping 756. Bottom line for the world: an incredible 36% increase in oil reserves during the two decades that saw the greatest globalization-spurred oil consumption in the history of mankind. And that doesn't include the 152 billion barrels in proven oil reserves obtainable from Canada's tar sands. Is there any reason to doubt that the next two decades won't build on the steady growth of the last two? These oil reserves aren't the end of it. These figures-for the year ending December 2006-represent oil that's not only known to be available, but also economic at 2006 prices using 2006 technology. Since prices have soared in the last year, and technology has improved too, BP's annual assessment for the 2007 year will show greater proven oil reserves still. http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/peak_oil_postponed/ Warmest Regards B0nz0 "It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville

"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."

Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics

"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated

Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher

"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."

Bertrand Russell
Sapient Fridge
2010-11-24 07:37:35 UTC
In message <4ceb36e1$***@dnews.tpgi.com.au>, 123bo n z o <***@huu.com> writes Post by 123bo n z o The climate is warming, that is an observation i.e. it is a fact. 0.6 degrees in a century. Please provide a representative sample of centuries. What would that show? Humans have never dumped this amount of CO2 in the atmosphere before so previous centuries temperatures are not terribly useful in predicting what is ahead. About 220 gigatons of CO2 enters the atmosphere each year from natural sources and about 220 gigatons leaves the atmosphere. It's in equilibrium. The problem is that humans are adding about 26 gigatons per year and that has nowhere to go, so it builds up. http://www.research.noaa.gov/spotlite/archive/spot_jimomedal.html Think of it this way, if you have an income of$100,000 and spend $100,000 a year then you are fine. If you spend$105,000 a year then eventually
you will become bankrupt even though the additional amount is a small
Actually even if you don't think that AGW is happening it's worth
supporting moves off fossil fuels anyway, we are past peak oil
Oh really?
You wish!
Peak Oil Postponed
July 15 2008
In the Americas, proven oil reserves have increased from 170 billion barrels
to 180 billion barrels over the last two decades, according to the 2008
Statistical World Review from British Petroleum.
Peak oil is not the point where we stop finding oil and it's not even
when the reserves start dropping, it is the point where the rate of
extraction slows down.

Since your article doesn't mention the rate of extraction it does
nothing to address the issue of peak oil.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

<snip>
--
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123bo n z o
2010-11-23 03:40:20 UTC
The climate is warming, that is an observation i.e. it is a fact.
0.6 degrees in a century. Please provide a representative sample of
centuries.
What would that show? Humans have never dumped this amount of CO2 in the
atmosphere before so previous centuries temperatures are not terribly
useful in predicting what is ahead.
About 220 gigatons of CO2 enters the atmosphere each year from natural
sources and about 220 gigatons leaves the atmosphere. It's in
equilibrium. The problem is that humans are adding about 26 gigatons per
year and that has nowhere to go, so it builds up.
http://www.research.noaa.gov/spotlite/archive/spot_jimomedal.html
Think of it this way, if you have an income of $100,000 and spend$100,000
a year then you are fine. If you spend $105,000 a year then eventually you will become bankrupt even though the additional amount is a small proportion of your income. Actually even if you don't think that AGW is happening it's worth supporting moves off fossil fuels anyway, we are past peak oil Oh and don't forget coal! Bad Luck Warmie Whackos, Preventing Mythical Manmade Climate Change is the Last Thing on the Coal Industry's Mind. Coal consumption increasing at a geometric rate. The coal bosses' plan: mine coal, sell coal, repeat until rich As one English delegate put it: ''The Chinese don't give a stuff about greenhouse emissions, and nor do I.'' November 14 2010 QUOTE: The most striking thing about the conference was how few people attended the carbon capture and storage session. An almost full house had heard Palmer declare green coal the ''only path'' to deal with climate change. Yet a mere 35 delegates went to the capture and storage session, and fewer than 20 stayed to the end. ONCE a year, coal industry bosses gather for the World Coal Conference: ''It's where the coal deals are done,'' says the brochure. The opening session set the tone. Fred Palmer, vice-president of Peabody Energy, the world's largest coal company, noted that since the ''great debate'' on climate change began, coal consumption had gone from 3.6 billion tonnes a year to almost 7 billion tonnes. By 2030, he predicted it would be more like 11-12 billion. ''The climate change concerns of people everywhere are legitimate'', he said, but alleviating energy poverty was ''policy priority number one''. On the basis that it would leave billions in energy poverty, he declared it ''immoral to say 'we're not going to touch coal'.'' To those saying continued coal use depends on developing carbon capture and storage or low carbon coal, his message was blunt: ''We will use coal, and the world is going to use more coal.'' Furthermore, ''using more coal to generate electricity is good for our health and good for our wealth''. There was a similarly defiant tone when I dropped the subject of climate change into conversation over lunch. Some openly doubted the science. One Australian executive said: ''I just don't understand how we can ignore such an overwhelming body of scientific research'', referring to the work of climate sceptics. He scoffed at the notion of capturing and storing emissions: ''It isn't happening and it won't happen''. I run through the slow pace of carbon capture with a Swiss trader; the G8's goal is to have 20 plants worldwide up and running by 2020. His answer: ''plant trees''. The clear impression is that Asian-driven coal demand is a more powerful juggernaut than climate change. As one English delegate put it: ''The Chinese don't give a stuff about greenhouse emissions, and nor do I.'' The most striking thing about the conference was how few people attended the carbon capture and storage session. An almost full house had heard Palmer declare green coal the ''only path'' to deal with climate change. Yet a mere 35 delegates went to the capture and storage session, and fewer than 20 stayed to the end. During question time, a British executive highlighted the contrast between the bullish talk about growth in global coal demand and the sparse attendance at the session. ''Most of the industry isn't really taking notice'', he warned. Instead, the focus is on supplying developing countries that have no absolute emissions reduction targets, and where capture is rarely mentioned. A spokesman from Brazilian mining giant Vale captured the mindset: ''Every morning, we get up and pray for China.'' Well they might. China is now building the equivalent of 10 New York Cities. If investment bank UBS is right, Chinese annual coal consumption will rise from 3 to 5.5 billion tonnes by 2020. Many doubt that China's coal industry can grow fast enough to meet that demand, and some expect India to import 1 billion tonnes of coal annually by 2020. Coal exporters are rubbing their hands while they pray. What's unclear is where the extra coal will come from. The only thing remotely as crucial to the equation as Chinese demand may be Australian supply - Australia produces around a third of the world's coal exports, and more than half the world's metallurgical coal exports. Increasingly it looks as if projected demand will only be met if Australia doubles its production. With so much hinging on Australia's continued willingness to turn a blind eye to the CO2 it exports, it might just be Australia that the Chinese get up and pray for every morning. At the rate carbon capture is happening, the world has a hell of a problem if the coal industry's prayers are answered. http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/the-coal-bosses-plan-mine-coal-sell-coal-repeat-until-rich-20101113-17rv5.html Warmest Regards B0nz0 "It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville

"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."

Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics

"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated

Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher

"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."

Bertrand Russell
agigo n bo
2010-11-27 03:38:46 UTC
The full effect of today's CO2 is delayed by heat sinks, mainly the
oceans. There is an awful lot of water there and it takes time for it all
to warm up.
http://www.oco.noaa.gov/index.jsp?show_page=page_roc.jsp&nav=universal
There are also positive feedback loops which are only just starting to
kick in e.g. albedo changes from melting ice.
So far no sign of these mythical positive feedbacks!
You have great faith in this my son.
You really should take up religion!

"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"
Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,

Warmest Regards

B0nz0

"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville "If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat" Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT, Former IPCC Lead Author "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics "A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made global warming." "The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips "Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result" "The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips "Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try at condemning fossil fuels!" http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives. Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher "The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible." Bertrand Russell Sapient Fridge 2010-11-27 09:19:02 UTC Permalink In message <4cf07d43$***@dnews.tpgi.com.au>, agigo n bo <***@uoy.com>
writes
Post by agigo n bo
The full effect of today's CO2 is delayed by heat sinks, mainly the
oceans. There is an awful lot of water there and it takes time for it all
to warm up.
http://www.oco.noaa.gov/index.jsp?show_page=page_roc.jsp&nav=universal
There are also positive feedback loops which are only just starting to
kick in e.g. albedo changes from melting ice.
So far no sign of these mythical positive feedbacks!
You have great faith in this my son.
You really should take up religion!
No sign? Only because you have your eyes closed.

Methyl hydrates:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8205864.stm

Melting permafrost:
http://www.terranature.org/methaneSiberia.htm

Melting ice:

Note that the albedo change from melting ice is currently countered by
the fact that felling forests lowers albedo, but that's not a good nor
long term solution.
Post by agigo n bo
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"
Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,
Actually the earth climate has "tipped" several times in the past,
here's the best known two examples:

A cooling one:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowball_earth

A warming one:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/10/071025091047.htm

It does always recover of course, but it takes millions of years to do
so.
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